“A victory for Donald Trump in the US presidential election could have a considerable impact on China”

LAmerican voters will not be the only ones glued to their television screens, on the night of Tuesday November 5 to Wednesday November 6, to follow the results of the presidential election. On the other side of the planet, Chinese deputies will not miss a beat. The result in Washington should indeed directly influence the decision they will have to make.

This first week of November sees the meeting of the standing committee of the National People's Assembly, the supreme body of Parliament. His task: to decide, by Friday November 8, the amount of the economic stimulation plan. However, a victory for Donald Trump could have a considerable impact. If the Republican candidate were elected and implemented his promise to tax products imported from China, it could have catastrophic consequences for the country.

In a note published in July, the bank UBS calculated that if the tax planned by the candidate of at least 60% were applied on all products coming from China, this could halve the country's growth. year of its implementation, i.e. 2.5 points of growth.

Consumption is slipping

Long reluctant to support his lame ducks, particularly in real estate, Chinese President Xi Jinping only recently decided to draw the classic weapon of the recovery plan. . His idea was rather to promote high technology in order to catch up with America on its favorite terrain. And to overtake the United States as the world's largest economy in 2035.

He also wanted to avoid falling into the real estate trap that paralyzed Japanese growth for thirty years. He therefore pushed for investment and exports in electronics, solar energy, electric cars, materials, etc. But Chinese citizens see things differently. Many have been ruined by the explosion of the real estate bubble, consumption is slipping, youth unemployment is not weakening and local authorities are in great financial difficulty.

The Chinese government is discovering that everything is linked: exports and domestic consumption, high technologies and traditional industry. The plan voted by parliamentarians, which could, according to analysts, reach 2,000 billion yuan (259 billion euros), will above all help indebted local authorities and make it possible to recapitalize the banks. This will not be enough to restore morale to Chinese consumers. Will major works need to be relaunched as during the 2008 financial crisis? Mr. Xi, educated in the Japanese counter-example, is resisting this temptation. Donald Trump will perhaps help him take the plunge.