Georges-Louis Bouchez received a mixed reception at Ghent University this Tuesday because of his comments on Israel. Can this whole affair prevent the MR from triumphing in these municipal elections as in the June ballot?
Georges-Louis Bouchez has always been someone quite pronounced. I am not sure that this controversy will necessarily have a negative impact. And what happened in Ghent could be good publicity for the president of the MR, who reacted rather well… Especially since there is a certain divide between official indignation towards his words and the tacit support of some who do not speak out.
And then, municipal elections do not only depend on the political leader in general. Many local lists, especially in French-speaking Belgium, do not refer to their party for fear of losing votes.
How is the liberal president seen in the north of the country?
There’s a lot of sympathy for him. His comments are not that far from what the Flemish majority thinks. He of course has a somewhat direct character which makes certain negotiations difficult. But the Flemish people generally like outspokenness. Instead, they blame politicians for their rhetoric.
The president of Flemish Belang Tom Van Grieken estimated this week that the sanitary cordon was “about to explode”. Do you believe it?
It depends on the fate of the PTB. In Antwerp, the head of the far-left party list will undoubtedly obtain a very good score. There are therefore possibilities of seeing the formation of a left-wing majority combining the PTB, Vooruit and Groen. This would have major consequences across the country. Paradoxically, if the PTB comes to power in a large city thanks to the left, this could lead to the end of the cordon santé. However, I am not sure that Vooruit agrees to govern with the PTB in Antwerp, this could endanger the Flemish majority and the possible future Arizona government.
The other scenario would be to see Vlaams Belang obtain an absolute majority in certain municipalities, such as Ninove. This would then automatically bring him to power.
During the big debate on VTM, the party presidents were unanimous: it will be without Vlaams Belang…
That’s true, as things stand. This is why, for me, the most likely would be to see Vlaams Belang come to power by obtaining an absolute majority. But if the PTB becomes a normal partner for a coalition, it will no longer be tenable for party presidents to exclude Vlaams Belang. The fate of the two parties is more linked than we think. In French-speaking Belgium, a distinction is made between the two extreme parties. The PTB is more perceived as being democratic. But for a majority of Flemish people, not excluding the PTB but rather the Vlaams Belang remains an extremely difficult exercise.
But in the north of the country too, we do not have a single slogan towards the extreme left. Groen and Vooruit have not ruled out joining forces with the PTB/PVDA…
Yes. Vooruit left the door open, but from a strategic point of view, because it is impossible for the socialists to participate in a left-wing majority in Antwerp, given the key position they currently play in federal negotiations and in the Flemish government . They would lose much more than they would gain. But it’s different for the Greens…
The MR would definitely like a sanitary cordon around the PTB…
I’m not so much in favor of a cordon sociale in general. Neither for the PTB, nor for Vlaams Belang. But, of course, if we do it for one, we should also do it for the other.
Bart De Wever recalled that for him too it was out of the question to ally with the extreme right, but within his party not everyone is of the same opinion. Will Flemish nationalists cross the Rubicon? Would this have repercussions on federal negotiations?
It’s a possibility that an opportunist might be tempted. But it is possible that the person who chooses to ally with Vlaams Belang will be excluded from the party. It is even very probable. In this case, it would have no impact on federal negotiations.
The results in the city of Antwerp may also have repercussions on discussions for the formation of an Arizona government. Bart De Wever looks less and less ready to occupy the post of Prime Minister ?
De Wever weakened himself by openly saying he was likely to become prime minister. In Antwerp, some people are asking questions given that the mayor could choose 16 rue de la Loi rather than the city mayorate. However, I don’t have the impression that he is withdrawing his candidacy for Prime Minister. To tell the truth, he never gave the impression of wanting anything. It’s a bit of his temperament.
“Bart De Wever found himself the perfect enemy”
Mayor threatened with deathracism, anti-Semitism… Have we witnessed a more violent campaign than the previous ones?
Municipal campaigns are always more agitated than others. We are more interested in local subjects which can stir up a form of hatred, rather than in deeper subjects. But it is true that we feel that these municipal elections reflect the polarization that exists in society. There is also the conflict in the Middle East which is stirring minds and the campaign.
Which party clearly stood out?
In French-speaking Belgium, the president of the MR was omnipresent. In Flanders, I have the impression that the big names of the Flemish political parties have had little presence. We are seeing more duels between candidates from large cities than real positions taken at party level. But we also saw the emergence of an unhealthy trend. The mayors believe that one must be well seen by the federal and regional level to succeed in one’s mayorship. This is what Jean-Marie Dedecker estimated in particular.
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