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why it could finally climb in 2025

While the drop in electricity prices finally seemed to be on the horizon for households, an increase in taxes could well counteract this trend. The government plans to revise upwards the domestic tax on electricity consumption (TICFE), potentially impacting the bills of many households from February 1, 2025.

An increase in TICFE on the horizon

The government plans to increase the TICFE, a tax on electricity consumption, from February 2025. Currently set at 22.50 euros per megawatt hour (MWh), this tax could rise to 32.44 euros per MWh. If this increase materializes, it will mainly affect households having subscribed to market offers, i.e. around 40% of households. These subscribers have until now benefited from more advantageous rates, as they are not linked to regulated rates. However, suppliers could choose to pass this tax increase on to invoices, and that’s where the problem lies.
For households with regulated or indexed tariffs, i.e. nearly 80% of 30 million households, the reduction in prices remains maintained, with a reduction of around 9%. However, this reduction is much less than that initially promised, which oscillated between 10% and 15%. The new tax therefore makes the equation more complex for many.

As a budget specialist explains in The Parisian« This will affect a lot of households. The less well off, whose homes are perhaps not the best equipped in terms of thermal comfort and insulation, will be more impacted than others. “. Indeed, an increase in the electricity bill weighs heavily on budgets, especially for those who have difficulty managing heating costs.

Electricity: a tax bomb for households in market offers

The government’s decision to restore the TICFE to its rate before the budgetary crisis aims to generate nearly 4.5 billion euros in additional revenue for the State. This fluctuating tax strategy, similar to the TIPP on fuels, could have negative effects for households, particularly those who have already made efforts to save energy.
In 2023, the government put in place a tariff shield to mitigate the impact of massive increases. But today, with the lifting of this shield, the electricity bill of households subscribed to a market offer could increase again. For subscribers to regulated rates, the impact should be less, but the expected reduction of 110 euros per year looks less generous than expected.

Faced with this fluctuating energy landscape, households will need to pay attention to their contract and the offers available. Those who are under a market offer could consider switching to regulated prices if they remain more affordable. However, this option could prove complex depending on individual situations and price variations in the market.
The government wants to be reassuring by affirming that the drop in wholesale electricity prices will partly compensate for the increase in the TICFE. Yet the outlook remains uncertain. As Energy Minister Olga Givernet recalls, “ the decisions have not yet been made », which leaves doubt about future bills.

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