Towards a fiscal electroshock? Nothing is certain… At least until we know the identity of the Prime Minister who will succeed Gabriel Attal at Matignon. However, there is urgency. The Minister of Economy and Finance of the resigning government, Bruno Le Maire, has indeed alerted the deputies and senators of a slippage of the public deficit of 16 billion euros for the year 2024, in a letter sent Monday, September 2. And according to a note from the Treasury attached to this letter, the public deficit risks reaching 5.6% of GDP in 2024 instead of the 5.1% initially planned in the budgetary trajectory.
This is a poisoned chalice for the future government in charge, which will have the difficult task of trying to bring the public deficit below 3%. Especially since the outgoing government is pointing to a drop in revenue from value added tax (VAT), particularly linked to an erosion of French consumption. Should we therefore fear a tightening of tax policy through the next draft finance bill (PLF) for 2025? “It is difficult to know because depending on the government we have, the orientations will not be the same, especially in tax matters,” warns François Ecalle, president of the Fipeco website, which specializes in public finances.
However, it is not excluded that the future government will seek to boost its revenue by increasing the overall rate of the single flat-rate levy (PFU), known as the “flat (…)
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