While France is still waiting for a Prime Minister, Edouard Philippe is running for the post of President of the Republic. In an interview with Le Point on September 3, the former tenant of Matignon declared his candidacy for “the next presidential election”. Taking care not to mention 2027, the year of the election, Edouard Philippe is considering the possibility of an early election following the resignation of Emmanuel Macron or a new dissolution of the Assembly plunging France into an even deeper political crisis. An additional source of friction between the former executive couple who now maintain frosty relations. Since leaving Matignon in 2020, Edouard Philippe has been cultivating his image and distancing himself from the head of state he hopes to replace. After the dissolution, the mayor of Le Havre strongly criticized Emmanuel Macron, explaining that the President of the Republic had “killed the presidential majority”. With the announcement of his candidacy, the Norman is confirming his break with the head of state.
Accustomed to discretion, the mayor of Le Havre also knows how to occupy the field. Very visible to the candidates during the campaign for the legislative elections, the former Prime Minister had made a remarkable political comeback in 2023 with the release of a book before increasing his media appearances.
Questionable timing?
“The timing is perfect because the country is starting to consider that Emmanuel Macron is a problem, there is a search for a successor, so he arrives at the right time,” says Philippe Moreau-Chevrolet, president of the consulting and communications agency MCBG Conseil and professor of political communications at Sciences Po. In the midst of a political crisis, announcing his candidacy for the presidential election when a Prime Minister could be appointed during the day may seem surprising. “We understand the strategy, but it’s too out of date to be really smart,” says Emilie Zapalski, communications consultant and founder of the Emilie Conseil agency. Above all, by choosing this timing, Edouard Philippe risks giving the impression that he is “aiming for 2027 and skipping over the current difficulties,” adds Emilie Zapalski.
Furthermore, while Edouard Philippe has enjoyed a high popularity rating for several years, the mayor of Le Havre has been relatively discreet on the national scene. For the moment, the former Prime Minister’s proposals remain rather vague, even though he advocated retirement at 67. “I am preparing to propose things to the French. What I will propose will be massive,” assures Edouard Philippe in his interview with Le Point. “We can expect him to go through his candidacy in series, he will have to reel off proposals to gain momentum, a whole machine is being put in place, he has been working on his local network for a while,” recalls Philippe Moreau-Chevrolet.
Regain control of the central block
By declaring himself so early, Edouard Philippe could seek to challenge the leadership of the President of the Republic. “He has very officially broken with Emmanuel Macron,” analyzes Philippe Moreau-Chevrolet. A paradoxical situation for the former Prime Minister who must embody both the succession and the break with Emmanuel Macron. The mayor of Le Havre could take advantage of the resentment within Renaissance against the head of state after the dissolution. Indeed, the dissolution cost the central bloc dearly, which lost a little over 80 seats. Emmanuel Macron being unable to run in the next presidential election, Edouard Philippe dreams of uniting “social democracy with the conservative right.” “He stands out in terms of image and notoriety on the right, he surfs on this image of a providential man that is projected onto him,” underlines Emilie Zapalski. “He is doing this at a time when neither Gabriel Attal nor Gérald Darmanin can express themselves,” adds Philippe Moreau-Chevrolet, who sees this as a clever move by the founder of the Horizons party. Furthermore, Edouard Philippe has not held back his blows against Laurent Wauquiez and should also try to seduce a part of the right.
“As soon as he gets down to business, it’s going to be very complicated.”
With more than two years to go before the election, a number of obstacles remain and his ability to regain control of the central bloc is questionable. The assumed distance that he has displayed for several years could turn against him. “As soon as he gets down to business, it will be very complicated. During the legislative elections, he had given himself the role of savior but had stayed away from the media-political noise,” warns Emilie Zapalski. Furthermore, the competition to regain control of the central bloc is likely to be significant, particularly with Gabriel Attal who distanced himself from the head of state following the dissolution. The latter, more visible and more active during the legislative campaign, could easily highlight Edouard Philippe’s flaws. “The question of incarnation is central, it is his main handicap, he is not Chiracian, he is not in seduction, rather in a technocratic role, so the challenge will also be to succeed in reaching a more popular fringe”, notes Philippe Moreau-Chevrolet.
