The least we can say is that Donald Trump's intervention at the Davos Forum was expected. Awaited with envy by some, but feared by others, particularly in Europe.
And his videoconference on January 23 confirmed the pugnacious intentions of the White House returnee. If he had already previously despaired the entire “politburo” of European political ecology by confirming the withdrawal of the United States from the Paris agreements (COP21) and by announcing unlimited exploitation of the gas and oil resources of the American subsoil , he has since shifted gears by announcing a complete change in the rules of the economic game, with the European Union in his sights, as noted The Echoes. As an informed businessman, the American president unceremoniously placed on the table the subject of the “deal”, which could be translated, with optimism, as “the carrot and stick principle” or, more coldly, as “blackmail”. eco-customs”: “Either you come to manufacture in the United States and you will benefit from the lowest taxes on the planet, or you want to produce elsewhere, and then you will have customs tariffs. »And Donald Trump reassures the followers of the first solution in their choice by assuring them that his country has (re)become “ the best place to create jobs, build factories and do business ».
Cars and agriculture in the viewfinder
Having noted the divisions between European states, Donald Trump threw a wrench into the pond, estimating that “ many European leaders are frustrated, particularly because of ecological constraints and bureaucratic procedures “. An example? “ A few years ago, I had a project in Ireland. It took me a week to get the Irish permits. But I was told that it would then take five to six years for European authorizations. I gave up. The whole problem is there. » And presto! A little slap, in passing, to denounce the European relentlessness against American technology companies (GAFAM), like these 15 billion demanded from Apple. “ It's unfair, it's a form of disguised taxation. » Beneath the Trumpian criticisms against European regulatory bureaucratism, we quickly guess the American desire to reshuffle the cards on certain big markets in which Uncle Sam considers that the trade balance is too unfavorable for him. “ They hardly take our agricultural products »: that’s for France. “ They don't take our cars, but they send us millions of them »: that's for Germany.
But Donald Trump is a fan of the multi-band pool move. On the question of oil, there is undoubtedly the idea of putting oil back into the seized cogs of the world economy, but geopolitical ulterior motives are never far away: “ I will ask Saudi Arabia and OPEC to lower the cost of oil. I am frankly surprised that they did not do it before the election. Not doing so wasn't really a sign of love. If the price was lower, the war in Ukraine would have ended immediately. » Because the American president fully intends to quickly negotiate an end to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, but there is no question of going to discuss it with his “friend” Putin without a colt on his belt and a cartridge belt slung over his shoulder. On this subject, too, he warned the European Union that it would have to pay. And as noted The Worldto the Euro-Atlanticists who would hope to obtain security against Vladimir Putin without compensation, an advisor to Donald Trump, Richard Grenell replied: “ You're going to run into a big chainsaw in the United States. You can't ask the American people to pay to expand NATO to Ukraine while its current members aren't paying their fair share – and that includes the Netherlands. »
If he asked the Fed (the American federal bank, which is only weakly supportive) to lower interest rates in order to promote economic recovery, he also echoed the cavalry charge of the Argentine president against wokism by delivering a harsh rebuke to the boss of Bank of America, Brian Moynihan (who has just hired Thierry Breton, Elon Musk's best enemy), to his international advisory board: “ Open your bank to conservatives. » A sort of Great Banking Replacement, in short…
-It's time to wake up…
On the Brussels side, we are taking with some difficulty (and with caution) an expected blow, but undoubtedly more violent than expected. The former boss of the IMF and now president of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, believes that when “ a major player in the global economy decides to organize things differently and threatens some of the partners with whom he used to work “, we can then fear a ” existential crisis “. As for the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, very Atlanticist, she wanted to calm things down, saying she was a follower of “ pragmatism » (which does not eat bread), timidly brandishing the threat of agreements with India and China. This same China which, by the way, is preparing to eat European car manufacturers alive because of an all-electric project in 2035 just out of the box… by Ursula von der Leyen.
The future looks complicated for French interests, particularly on the question of customs duties, to the extent that we will be entirely dependent on strategic decisions taken at the European level, and that several countries do not have at all the same interests than ours to defend. If, for example, the Germans seek to defend their industry (and in particular the automobile industry), we will have to fight hard, particularly in the food industry and luxury goods, sectors in which we have a lot to lose.
But if the Trump grenade, which has just put an end to the era of globalism, could at least wake up our leaders, that would already be a win.
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