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If Michel Barnier's finance bill will never see the light of day, following censorship, that of François Bayrou could become a reality. And this will not help some French people regarding the taxes they will have to pay.
The Minister of the Economy, Éric Lombard, spoke on Friday January 17 the day after the rejection of the motion of censure. On BFM TV, he displays a reassuring tone, explaining that the number of taxable French people would not change.
He emphasizes that the aim of the State is, in particular, to protect the most modest French people. For that, he intends to re-index the income tax scale to inflationa flagship measure of the bill.
Taxes: preserving modest French people at all costs?
Éric Lombard therefore confirms to us that the finance bill for 2025 would include a reindexation of income tax to inflation. Pending its adoption, current tax rules, including the income tax (IR) scale, remain in force.
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It should be noted why this reindexing is essential for many French people. Without it, nearly 380,000 new households would become taxable, and 17 million taxpayers would experience an increase in their taxes.
Éric Lombard intends to avoid this scenario thanks to a reform which will protect households with modest incomes. A desire that is obviously shared by elected officials on the left. On this subject, Éric Coquerel, president of the finance committee and member of La France Insoumise, proposed several amendments in this direction in the past.
This news obviously reassures modest French people. But the others? Will they pay more taxes in 2025?
Taxes: income in the sights?
At the same time, the contribution of the richest households is fueling the debate. Concerning taxes, we can therefore address the case of the Exceptional Contribution on High Income (CEHR). The latter is a tax measure. It establishes a minimum tax of 3% for taxpayers whose reference tax income exceeds 250,000 euros for a single person. The tax is 4% if the RFR exceeds 500,000 euros for a couple.
-François Bayrou confirms that it will be maintained in his finance bill for 2025. And this, despite some hesitation. It must be said that the measure has support on the left, particularly from the Socialist Party.
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The latter particularly insists on its usefulness, and its presence plays a big role in the fact that Bayrou is still in place today. If he actually decided to cancel it, the PS would have voted for the motion of censure against the current Prime Minister.
A two-step tax transition
The transition will take place with the entry into force of the Differential Contribution on High Incomes (CDHR). This is a new measure that should be introduced in the finance bill for 2025.
It is much stricter regarding taxes on the richest. In fact, it aims to guarantee a minimum tax of 20% for taxpayers whose RFR exceeds 250,000 euros for a single person. For a couple, the RFR ceiling increases to 500,000 euros.
This measure is important for the state budget. Indeed, it should generate up to 2 billion euros in additional tax revenue. With the CDHR, some French people will therefore see their tax burden increase. Those who primarily report capital income (dividends, capital gains, etc.) will pay more taxes.
For the government, taxes play a major role in finances. The goal is therefore to move towards fiscal rebalancing to protect low-income households. All this, without forgetting to make greater use of high assets. However, their adoption will depend on the political balance around the finance bill.
