Keystone-SDA
Good prospects for American distributors, less so for Europeans: the political and economic context weighs heavily on the activity of the distribution sector, whose good health depends on the desire of households to spend on their shelves.
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January 14, 2025 – 11:02
(Keystone-ATS) For her first gathering of the world distribution federation, the general delegate of the French supermarket employers’ federation (FCD) Layla Rahhou was surprised by the difference in states of mind.
“The Americans are very optimistic, the Europeans much less,” she told AFP on Sunday evening, on the sidelines of the National Retail Forum (NRF) trade show which is being held in New York.
Beyond a cultural dimension, there are above all objective factors.
“Cautiously optimistic”
In the United States, “the context seems healthy with a reacceleration of consumer spending during the second half of 2024 and a very good configuration for the year to come,” Sarah declared Monday during a press briefing at the NRF show. Wolfe, economist for the private bank Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, speaking of a “cautiously optimistic outlook”.
This is less the case in Europe, where ambient pessimism is fueled by political instability in several countries.
However, the situation in supermarkets is not uniform. “Part of Europe is already recovering very well with sales which have already started to grow again”, both in turnover and in volumes sold, explains financial analyst Clément Genelot, specialist in the sector for the bank. European businessman Bryan Garnier & Co.
This is particularly the case in Southern Europe and the United Kingdom where the big leader Tesco (28.5% of the market in the country) has just announced record Christmas sales.
On the other hand, two countries stand out rather negatively: Poland where the leader Biedronka, owned by the Portuguese Jeronimo Martins, and the German discounter Lidl have been engaged in a “very tough price war” for almost a year, observes Mr. Genelot.
And France, where political uncertainty is immense. Are there going to be tax increases? Will certain medications be less reimbursed, certain social assistance less distributed? In the absence of a budget for 2025, households will, in the meantime, tend to save rather than spend.
Several players in the sector have already experienced setbacks in France in recent months. Disappointment of Casino, strangled by its debt and which had to sell almost all of its large format stores to its competitors. Social plans at Casino again, Auchan and to a lesser extent Carrefour.
Walmart makes people jealous
And legal proceedings against the latter emanating from the CFDT, which accuses him of ceding the management of numerous stores to third-party franchisees or tenant-managers, causing an ever-increasing number of employees to lose social benefits and salaries, more than 27,000 since 2017. according to her.
However, some players are doing well, starting with the leader E.Leclerc, with almost a quarter of the market.
But the stock market performance of world leader Walmart is the envy of all retailers.
The American juggernaut, king of the “big box” – a gigantic store where everything can be bought, from food to clothing to televisions – raised its financial targets for the staggered 2025 financial year in mid-November, as during the two previous quarters.
“It’s been ten years that everyone in the sector has had their eyes on Amazon, today everyone has their eyes on Walmart,” comments the CEO of VusionGroup Thierry Gadou, a French specialist in electronic labels and a major American service provider.
One of the success factors in his eyes: Walmart’s ability to make its stores delivery warehouses for online sales. In the United States, the retailer’s e-commerce sales jumped 22%.
