Banks listed in Morocco are expected to experience an unprecedented period of prosperity between 2024 and 2026, according to the latest report published by Attijari Global Research (AGR).
The revised forecast highlights significant profit growth, now estimated at 13.5% per year, up from 8.3% initially. The cumulative profits of the sector could thus exceed 22 billion dirhams by the end of 2026, indicates AGR in its “Research Report Equity” for January, devoted to the balance sheet and prospects of the banking sector.
A favorable context and rising indicators
AGR underlines that the Moroccan banking sector relies on a globally resilient macroeconomic environment, favoring an acceleration in net banking income (NBI). The latter shows a forecast average annual increase of 7.5% over the period 2023-2026, a clear improvement compared to the rate of 3.7% recorded before the Covid-19 pandemic.
This dynamic can be explained by several factors, including:
- The resumption of equipment loans, with growth of 14.2% at the end of October 2024.
- The return of housing credit, supported by the Direct Housing Assistance Program, having led to a 32.1% increase in construction starts in the first half of 2024.
- The positive direction of market activities, driven by a more flexible monetary cycle and the adoption of hedging products by SMEs.
- The continued optimization of the average cost of the Resource through sustained growth in non-remunerated deposits in Morocco.
Cost optimization and increased digitalization
AGR also highlights the underlying downward trend in the operating coefficient (COEX), thanks to better operational efficiency. The sector’s operating ratio (COEX) is expected to improve by an additional 5.7 points between 2023 and 2026, from 47.3% to 41.7%. This progress is attributed to the massive adoption of digital platforms by customers, enabling process and cost optimization.
Promising stock market potential
The outlook for the listed banking sector is also encouraging on the stock market. AGR projects a target capitalization of 312 billion dirhams, with a potential appreciation of +13.0% over the next 12 months. The report also highlights that the sector’s valuation remains cautious, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio expected around 14.0x in 2026.
With these positive indicators, Moroccan banks confirm their central role in the country’s economic dynamics. Driven by a combination of strategic reforms, effective management and a favorable economic context, they are preparing to set new records in the years to come.
