RDS presents five matches with playoff stakes on all our platforms, Saturday and Sunday
Week 18 of the 2024 NFL season still has plenty at stake for the race to the playoffs.
The Broncos, Dolphins and Bengals are battling for the last available spot in the AFC. The Ravens and Steelers are competing for the AFC North title. The Bucs and Falcons are fighting for survival in the NFC South. Finally, the Lions and Vikings face off for the NFC North title and first place in the conference on Sunday night.
Not all of these teams control their own destiny, but all nine need a win to at least keep their qualifying hopes alive.
Here is a summary of the issues, the keys to victory for the nine teams still in the running. Additionally, the winning scenarios and odds of doing so, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), are detailed below for each team. Let’s start with the three-team race for seventh place in the AFC.
ONE LAST PLACE AT STAKE IN THE AFC
What the Broncos must do to win against Kansas City
Match : Sunday, 4:25 p.m., at RDS2
FPI chances of qualifying for the playoffs : 64%
Qualifying scenario : Win/tie OR Bengals and Dolphins both lose/tie
The key to victory : Put pressure on Carson Wentz
The Broncos won’t admit it, but the fact that Patrick Mahomes is watching the game from the sidelines is great news for them. With Carson Wentz at starting quarterback for the Chiefs, Denver defensive coordinator Vance Joseph can be expected to turn up the pressure on Wentz, while utilizing his coverage skills on the perimeter – Pat Surtain II and Riley Moss – to test Kansas City’s receivers.
In their Week 10 matchup, the Broncos played man-to-man coverage on 73.5% of the plays and blitzed 32.7% of the time. Those were aggressive numbers that allowed Denver to limit Kansas City to 16 points. So why change now that Wentz is taking charge? The Broncos need to restrict opportunities and force Wentz to move under pressure, where his willingness to extend plays can become detrimental.
What the Dolphins need to do to win against the Jets
Match : Sunday, 4:25 p.m.
FPI chances of making the playoffs : 11%
Qualifying scenario : Victory AND defeat of the Broncos
The key to victory : Disrupting Aaron Rodgers’ timing on third downs
In the Week 14 matchup at Miami, Rodgers passed for 339 yards, a season high for him to forget. Still, the Dolphins had success on third downs, as Rodgers and the Jets were only able to advance the ball on three of eleven attempts.
To achieve this again, Miami will need to mix up their coverages and pressures to disrupt the timing of the passing game. The Dolphins varied their zone and man coverages, limiting Rodgers to a 21.4 quarterback efficiency rating (QBR) on third downs.
Rodgers wants to throw the ball quickly, so Miami’s priority on Sunday will be blocking the inside lanes and impacting the routes of Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson.
What the Bengals must do to win in Pittsburgh
Match : Saturday, 8 p.m. at RDS2
FPI chances of making the playoffs : 25%
Qualifying scenario : Victory AND loss for the Broncos AND loss for the Dolphins/tie
The key to victory : isolate the other receivers to neutralize Chase
Film from the Week 13 game against the Steelers is a good example to follow for the Bengals to find the end zone. Pittsburgh used safety Minkah Fitzpatrick to constantly slow down the work of Joe Burrow’s accomplice, Ja’Marr Chase. The Bengals’ other dominant receiver, Tee Higgins, found himself facing cornerback Joey Porter Jr. Higgins was targeted twice in the pay zone by Burrow, one of whose passes he caught for a touchdown .
As the Steelers are expected to continue to use a safety to help neutralize Chase when Cincinnati is in scoring position, the Bengals should be expected to isolate Higgins on quick, corner routes and two-man concepts that force the Steelers to communicate and line up quickly to cover him. The Bengals had success in this area last week, when Higgins scored on a 3-yard line to beat Denver in overtime.
A FINAL BATTLE FOR THE AFC NORTH
What the Ravens must do to win against Cleveland
Match : Saturday, 4:30 p.m. at RDS2
FPI chances of winning the division : 95%
Decisive scenario : Steelers win/tie OR loss/tie
The keys to victory : Target deep areas with Zay Flowers
The Browns have no secrets when it comes to their pass coverage. He’s playing simple one-on-one coverage on 77.4 percent of the opponent’s plays this season. This creates opportunities for Ravens offensive coordinator Todd Monken to tap speed merchant Zay Flowers. In their first face-to-face of the season, in Week 8, Flowers caught 7 of 12 passes thrown his way for 115 yards, including two explosive plays of over 20 yards.
Using movement and varied formations, Monken can again put Flowers in positions to stretch the defense vertically, giving quarterback Lamar Jackson a target on the perimeter who runs into open space. Cleveland has allowed 53 plays of more than 20 yards this season and Jackson, who wants to strengthen his candidacy for the title of “MVP”, will certainly want to exploit the defensive shortcomings of the Browns.
Match : Saturday, 8 p.m. at RDS2
FPI chances of winning the division : 5%
Decisive scenario : Victory AND defeat for the Ravens
The key to victory : Winning on the ground battle with Najee Harris
Yes, making deep zone plays to receiver George Pickens has to be a piece of the Steelers scoresheet, but the ground game behind Najee Harris is the fundamental aspect of this offense under coordinator Arthur Smith .
In the Week 13 game at Cincinnati, Harris was held to 75 yards, including 68 yards and a touchdown on runs to or away from guards. The Steelers are expected to utilize passing plays to the sidelines, which would give Harris easier access to the perimeter to find space in the opposing defense. On paper, this is a good matchup for the Steelers. The Bengals defense has allowed 4.5 yards per carry this season (21st in the NFL) and 5.1 to or away from guards (23rd).
FIRST ROW IN THE NFC
What the Lions need to do to win against Minnesota
Match : Sunday, 8:20 p.m. at RDS2
FPI chances of getting 1st place : 65%
Decisive scenario : Victory/tie
The key to victory : Find more offensive responses against zone blitz
In the first meeting of the season between these two teams, in Week 7, Brian Flores’ Minnesota defense blitzed an impressive 58.1% of plays. But Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson had answers, as quarterback Jared Goff completed 14 of 16 passes for 159 yards and a touchdown against the blitz (five or more players pressuring).
Without David Montgomery (knee) – the Lions’ best blocking running back – Johnson will have to rely on his game plan from Week 7. Because the Vikings played zone coverage on 79.8 percent of the Goff’s passes in Game 1, the quarterback could have success with short routes, which would allow his skilled receivers and Jahmyr Gibbs to run after the catch. This is where Goff is at his best. He completed 77.3% of his throws in the short area this season, delivering the ball with precision and speed.
What the Vikings must do to win in Detroit
Match : Sunday, 8:20 p.m. at RDS2
FPI chances of getting 1st place : 35%
Decisive scenario : Victoire
Key to victory : Exploit a variety of offensive formations on passing plays
Detroit played man-to-man coverage on 58.3% of Sam Darnold’s passing plays in the Week 7 matchup, and Aaron Glenn’s defensive unit has a man-to-man coverage rate of 55, 2% during the season (third highest rate in the league). He’s a major part of Detroit’s defensive identity this season.
However, this approach allows Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell to create offensive numbers. O’Connell can get openings with his wide receivers by using concepts where multiple receivers start the play on the same side to create favorable matchups and opportunities for draw plays. Darnold completed 11 of his 15 passes against man-to-man coverage in the last matchup against the Lions, and receiver Justin Jefferson scored a 25-yarder on one of those plays.
THE THRONE OF THE SOUTHERN NFC, OR THE VACATION
What the Buccaneers need to do to win against New Orleans
Match : Sunday, 1 p.m. at RDS2
FPI odds of winning the division : 85%
Decisive scenario : Falcons win/tie OR loss/tie
The key to victory : Heat Spencer Rattler’s ears with pressure
Todd Bowles’ defense is still focused on the ability to design and execute pressure concepts, and that will be more important than ever against a quarterback play like Rattler, who will be in action at starting quarterback in the absence by Derek Carr.
The Bucs use the blitz on 35.3% of plays and apply more pressure from the third level than any other team. The Bucs defense can act late to scramble, while creating lanes for linebackers and cornerbacks. In six games this season, Rattler has a 36.2 QBR and a 44.1% success rate against the blitz. Tampa Bay just needs to apply pressure early and force the inexperienced quarterback to make poor decisions with the ball.
What the Falcons need to do to win against Carolina
Match : Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
FPI chances of winning the division : 15%
Decisive scenario : Victory AND defeat for the Bucs
The key to victory : Give the keys to the attack to Bijan Robinson
Robinson’s short-area speed and acceleration are comparable to Saquon Barkley, who is coming off a historic season. Robinson is an ultra-explosive carrier, which is a perfect fit for the Falcons’ outside zone running game. Let’s not make things complicated, especially considering the fact that the Panthers’ defense is devoid of talent.
The Panthers are allowing 5.1 yards per carry and 176.9 yards per game, two numbers that put them last in the NFL. It should be a busy day for Robinson, who averaged 21.8 carries per game in Weeks 12-17, with 14 runs of 10 yards or more during that span.
