In France, old property prices stabilized in the third quarter (-0.1%) after a year and a half of decline, according to the benchmark Notaires-Insee index published on Thursday. The decline in prices of existing housing had already slowed down in the previous quarter, with a decrease of 0.5%, compared to -1.5% in the first quarter of 2024 and -1.8% in the fourth quarter of 2023. Over one year, the decline prices also eased and stood at -3.9%, after -4.9% in the second quarter and -5.2% in the first quarter of 2024. Prices fell for the fifth consecutive quarter.
In Île-de-France, the value of old real estate is stabilizing (-0.1%), after seven consecutive quarters of decline. Outside Île-de-France, where prices have been falling since mid-2023, the drop is equivalent. According to provisional seasonally adjusted data, price declines are similar for houses (-3.9% year-on-year) and apartments (-3.8%). “We really hope that we have hit bottom and that the market will finally rebound” insisted Élodie Frémont, spokesperson for the chamber of notaries in Paris during the presentation of the official figures.
Lowest since 2015
The number of transactions recorded by notaries “continues to decline”as is the case “since the end of September 2021”notes the document published by INSEE. At the end of September 2024, the number of transactions carried out over the last 12 months is estimated at 780,000, after 792,000 at the end of June 2024 and 825,000 at the end of March 2024. The number of transactions accumulated over twelve months thus reaches its lowest level since 2015. This drop in volumes which now reaches almost 40% worries notaries who nevertheless doubt a rapid return to a more fluid market.
“In the inner suburbs, new buildings are in a much worse situation than old ones and we have reached a historic low in 30 years,” laments Thibault Gallot-Lavallee, notary in Neuilly-sur-Seine. For example, for houses there were only 40 acts over the quarter for this entire sector. In our real estate markets overall, the only little patch of blue sky that is progressing is sales of garages or parking lots alone. A situation which is undoubtedly linked to the political will to remove cars from the roadways.
Price-wise, they are now at €9,520/m² in Paris and should fall further to €9,360/m² by January, according to the leading indicator for pre-contracts. The capital now has 7 districts where average prices have fallen below €9,000/m² (12th, 13th, 14th, 15th, 18th, 19th and 20th). For the moment, the bulk of transactions result from “forced” sales. “We stay on the 4Ds,” explains Élodie Frémont, “death, divorce, debt and recently we can add the DPE.” And on the buyers' side, if the desire to acquire stone is still there, the negotiations are more difficult and tense with sellers who are still having difficulty correcting their prices downward. “It sometimes happens that discussions resume when the final act is signed”explains Élodie Frémont. And to make matters worse, uncertainties over rates are sending negative signs, as is the rise in notary fees. It's not easy to be truly optimistic about the return to a fluid real estate market.
