(Ecofin Agency) – Russia is the world’s largest exporter of wheat and the 3th cereal producing country behind China and India. After a successful campaign in 2023/2024, the outlook for the sector looks more dull for 2024/2025.
In 2024/2025, Russia is expected to export 46.1 million tons of wheat, compared to an estimate of 52.2 million tons a year earlier, agricultural consulting company SovEcon said in a report dated June 28.
The reduced stock is the result of a harvest affected by frosts in May that prompted the government to declare a state of emergency in 10 regions of the country, as well as hot and dry conditions in some winter wheat-producing regions, the firm said.
After two consecutive seasons above 90 million tonnes, Russian production is expected to fall to 80.7 million tonnes this season, according to SovEcon. While overall the former USSR is still expected to retain its status as the world’s leading exporter, the anticipated contraction is part of a broader context of tightening global trade.
With the exception of the USA and Argentina, all other members of the top seven major wheat exporters, namely the European Union (EU), Canada, Australia and Ukraine, are indeed expecting declines in their sales during the new campaign which starts this month.
This situation is expected to lead to the first contraction in global wheat exports since 2017/2018 despite a record harvest of more than 790 million tonnes, according to data from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).
Espoir Olodo
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