the essential
During a press conference on Wednesday June 12, Emmanuel Macron castigated the National Rally program, the cost of which, according to him, would amount to more than 100 billion euros in expenses per year. In 2022, a liberal French think tank scrutinized the programs of presidential candidates, including that of Marine Le Pen, the cost of which had, according to its calculations, been largely underestimated. Decryption.
The program of the National Rally was estimated at “a cost of at least 100 billion per year” by an “independent cabinet” assured Emmanuel Macron, Wednesday June 12, warning against an arrival of the far-right party to the head of government in the event of victory in the legislative elections.
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The independent firm mentioned by Emmanuel Macron is the Institut Montaigne, a think tank with liberal roots and pro-business. This last had estimated in 2022 the expenses involved in Marine Le Pen’s program for the presidential elections at 119.6 billion euros (Md€)while the candidate had put forward the figure of 68.3 billion€ of expenses. A gap of almost 50 billion€ due in particular to “insufficiently detailed savings measures or whose materialization is too uncertain to be taken into account”, estimated the organization, which quantified the savings measures or additional tax revenues induced by the RN program at 17.8 billion €, compared to €68 billion according to the candidate.
Like several other observers who considered the budget presented by the RN candidate questionable, the Institute noted underestimates on almost “most of the measures”.
Retirees
First example, the candidate estimated measures favorable to retirees at €17.1 billion, compared to €37.7 billion by the Institut Montaigne. The RN program in 2022 notably provided for a return of the retirement age to 60 years at full rate and an increase in the minimum old age, estimated at 9.6 billion euros by the candidate compared to around 26.5 billion euros by the organization.
Immigration and fraud
Betting on national preference, the RN candidate announced savings of €55 billion, particularly on immigration and social fraud. It promised €16 billion in savings by reducing social spending linked to immigration. A figure estimated at €10 billion by the Institut Montaigne.
The RN notably wanted to reserve the RSA and social benefits for foreigners who have worked at least 5 years in France. An initiative which would make it possible to achieve more than €5.4 billion in savings per year according to the party, compared to €2.5 billion according to the organization’s estimates.
Marine Le Pen also assured that she could collect €15 billion per year from tax and social fraud without however detailing how her government would tackle it, underlined The world in 2022, judging the budget of the RN presidential project “wobbly”.
The EU budget
The Montaigne Institute also pointed out certain “anti-European” measures that were difficult to implement, such as the €5 billion (or 20%) reduction in France’s contribution to the European Union budget. which involves leading negotiations with our European partners whose outcome is uncertain.”
Salaries
The RN also proposed to exempt companies from employer contributions to encourage them to increase salaries below 3 SMIC by 10%. A measure whose cost was deemed zero by Marine Le Pen but whose shortfall would in reality be more than €10.5 billion for public finances, argues the Montaigne Institute.
The public deficit
In conclusion, the think tank estimated in 2022 that the application of the RN program “would lead to an unbalanced budget, which would increase the public deficit by 101.8 billion € per year”.
More recently, the Jean-Jaurès Foundation looked into the party’s program for the European elections. According to this, the RN’s proposals “oscillate between impossible to implement, ineffective, dangerous for the French and European economy, or already in force.” She also judges the impact on public spending “disastrous”.
Tuesday June 11, Bruno Le Maire, like the Head of State, warned of a “possible debt crisis in France” if the RN were to be elected in the legislative elections. The “very clear” increase in the deficit, while the situation of the public accounts is “already degraded” could in fact “lead to a marked increase in the cost of financing the French debt”, assures the Montaigne Institute (according to it, the deficit would increase from 4 points of GDP to between 5.8 and 6.5 points in 2027). An “exceptionally high” deficit compared to our European neighbors which could “generate distrust among investors in French debt” judges the same source.
Bruno Le Maire reported a “sudden” jump in the borrowing rate gap between France and Germany on Tuesday, two days after the dissolution of the National Assembly. “Our creditors are worried, starting to move, to frown, noted the Minister of Finance. Since a victory for the RN has become possible, the cost of the French debt has exploded.” “We do not have the means to finance Ms. Le Pen’s additional tens of billions of euros,” he added.
