The customs barriers promised by Donald Trump will certainly constitute “a challenge” for Swiss exports. However, Rahul Sahgal, director of the American-Swiss Chamber of Commerce, puts forward several factors which allow their consequences to be “put into perspective”.
How should the election of Donald Trump be seen from the point of view of the Swiss economy? Interviewed Thursday in La Matinale, Rahul Sahgal, director of the American-Swiss Chamber of Commerce, said he was rather optimistic – “even if everything is not going to be easy” – about the future collaboration between the two countries, as he would have been optimistic in the event of the election of Kamala Harris “because the American market is doing well and because Donald Trump is taking over a growing economy, certainly with challenges”.
>> Follow-up on the American presidential election: After the triumph of Donald Trump, a new era of uncertainty begins in the United States and around the world
For him, business will continue in the United States for Swiss companies as it has for 30 years. “We were able to increase our exports to the United States, we continued to invest in the United States and American companies continued to invest in Switzerland and create jobs in Switzerland.”
Improbable universal customs barriers
Donald Trump, however, declared during his campaign that if he returned to the White House, he would put in place customs barriers on all imports. They could be around 60% for Chinese products and 10 to 20% for those from other countries.
Swiss products exported to the United States — the leading destination for these products with nearly 57 billion francs per year — could be directly affected. But this effect should remain limited, believes Rahul Sahgal.
He “does not think that Donald Trump will impose universal customs barriers” on all products and for all countries. Because “this would clearly increase inflation” in the United States, which is already high. However, the elected president promised to lower it in the event of victory and this is one of the reasons for his electoral success.
Rahul Sahgal further believes that the fact that Switzerland is not in the European Union could be an advantage, because it means that it can be treated differently and that we can negotiate separately, unlike the EU, which is a zone of uniform customs barriers.
Similar economic operations
Furthermore, in terms of economy, Switzerland and the United States are rather close: liberalism, limited interventionism, moderate taxation. And the United States, like Switzerland, are federal countries, which leave a lot of power to the cantons on the one hand and to the States on the other, notes the expert.
On the other hand, he specifies, Switzerland does not have customs barriers, except for agriculture, while Donald Trump proposes to apply them to all products.
Comments collected by Pietro Bugnon
Article web: Julie Marty
