This Tuesday, January 5, the presidential election takes place in the United States. The victory of Donald Trump or Kamala Harris is likely to have an impact on Elon Musk. But how much?
“If he loses, I’m screwed.” This is what Elon Musk said on October 7, referring to Donald Trump in the context of the presidential election. During an interview with former Fox News journalist Tucker Carlson, the billionaire, who publicly supports Donald Trump, suggested he could go to jail if Kamala Harris wins.
“How long do you think my prison sentence will last?” he joked, adding that he does not know if he will see his children. As the United States votes for its next president this Tuesday, November 5, the victory of Donald Trump or Kamala Harris could change things for Elon Musk.
Elon Musk in the White House?
A victory for Donald Trump would benefit Elon Musk. Ideologically opposed for several years, the two billionaires are now allies. Having already invested more than $75 million in the Republican candidate’s campaign, Elon Musk is increasing his efforts to get him elected. The latest: a lottery allowing people who sign up for a pro-Trump petition to win a million dollars.
For his part, Donald Trump made some promises to Elon Musk. If elected, the owner of X (formerly Twitter) could enter the White House. Last August, the former American president declared that he was ready to offer him a position as minister or advisor in the event of victory, without specifying which position he could occupy.
A few weeks later, in September, Donald Trump made it known that he wanted to charge Elon Musk with an “audit” of the American government to “reform” it in depth, expecting that he would do ” recommendations for draconian reforms”. With one objective: to “optimize” government spending, by drastically reducing it.
Conflicts of interest
As the New York Times noted in a recent article, this would create a potentially huge conflict of interest, giving the SpaceX boss, who is the world’s richest man and a major government contractor, power to influence the regulators of its own companies.
Over the past decade, SpaceX has signed federal contracts worth at least $15.4 billion, including $11.8 billion for NASA and $3.6 billion for the Department of Defense. At the same time, Elon Musk’s companies have been targeted by several investigations, notably concerning Tesla’s Autopilot driver assistance system and the environmental damage caused by its rockets.
The billionaire having already called for removing or weakening federal regulations, but also for reducing federal spending, it is possible that he will carry out his threats if he enters the White House.
“If Trump wins, we will have an opportunity for once-in-a-lifetime deregulation and downsizing of government,” he said at a conference in Los Angeles. Angeles last September.
Authorities conducting investigations against Elon Musk’s companies might think twice before opening one for fear that their budget or regulatory authority would be affected if Donald Trump appoints him as senior adviser, warned lawyer Kathleen Clark. specializing in ethical issues, with the New York Times.
Elon Musk could also harm competition if he joined the US government. In May, he indicated on X that he would like to end NASA’s Starliner contract with Boeing, which is its main competitor in the sector.
“The world does not need a new capsule. What matters are fully reusable rockets and spacecraft,” he wrote, referring to the flight of the Boeing capsule which had been postponed.
A few months later, she returned to Earth without the two astronauts she had taken to the International Space Station because of concerns about the safety of the device. They should return to Earth in February thanks to SpaceX.
“Mountain of bureaucracy”
If Kamala Harris wins, Elon Musk fears the worst. Having increased attacks against the Democratic candidate in recent months, he fears in particular that her victory will harm his space company, SpaceX.
“One of my big concerns right now is that the Starship program is being stifled by a mountain of government bureaucracy that grows every year. This stifling bureaucracy affects every major American project,” he wrote on X in September , adding that this bureaucracy will continue to grow if Kamala Harris is elected President of the United States.
According to the billionaire, “this would destroy the Mars program and doom humanity.” Wishing to colonize Mars, Elon Musk plans to send the first ships to the planet in two years, but this project risks being compromised if Kamala Harris wins, according to him.
However, many experts believe that a victory for the Democratic candidate would not have harmful consequences on Elon Musk’s companies. Currently vice president of the United States, Kamala Harris heads the National Space Council, the body coordinating space policy within the government which was reestablished by Donald Trump in 2017. And, she has not made any major changes, as ‘explained the New York Times. Simply put, SpaceX is still the dominant entity in government spaceflight.
If the Biden administration could have reversed “a lot” of the changes made by Donald Trump, it did not do so because they were “objectively smart things to do”, assured Todd Harrison, member of a think tank which worked with the National Space Council, with the New York Times.
SpaceX in a position of strength
Whether with Donald Trump or with Kamala Harris, Elon Musk should have no concerns about SpaceX. “The reality is that regardless of administration, SpaceX will likely thrive because of its market position and comparative advantages, which leaves the government with little choice but to choose SpaceX,” said Chris Quilty, co-director of Quilty Space, a space research company, at The Information.
An opinion also shared by French experts. “SpaceX is a private company which presents a lot of interests and advantages, including for the American government, to be able to have the most efficient launcher in the world and to be able to capture the satellite market around the world,” underlined Francis Rocard, head of the solar system exploration program at the National Center for Space Studies (Cnes), at Tech&Co, referring to the Starship megarocket and the Starlink satellite internet access service – including the military version, Starshield , is also used by the US military.
According to him, even if Kamala Harris does not support Elon Musk’s excesses, it should not have an impact on SpaceX. Proof of this is: during his mandate, “Joe Biden absolutely did not hinder Elon Musk”, adds Francis Rocard.
SpaceX will therefore likely continue to prosper as the main partner of NASA and the Pentagon for rocket launches, especially since its competitors, notably Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin and Boeing, are far from matching it in terms of technology .
Divest from your businesses
In addition to not harming him as much as he thinks, a victory for Kamala Harris could be more beneficial to Elon Musk than a victory for Donald Trump. If the Republican candidate wins and brings him into government, the boss of Tesla, SpaceX and Neuralink could be forced to leave his companies.
As Tom Wheeler, former chairman of the Federal Communications Commission (FCC), told the US newspaper The Hill, Musk’s “fortune, which makes him the richest man in the world, is based on government contracts like SpaceX and subsidized companies like Tesla.
“If he is so dependent on government decisions, he either needs to completely disengage from doing anything in government or not take the kinds of positions that have been promised or suggested,” he said. he argued.
With Kamala Harris, Elon Musk would not have to leave his companies. On the other hand, it is possible that the Democratic candidate will give her a hard time for companies other than SpaceX. According to The Information, it is indeed theoretically possible that Kamala Harris will stifle Tesla’s ambitions, particularly in relation to the Cybercab, an autonomous vehicle without steering wheel or pedal which was unveiled in October.
This, with the help of federal regulators, such as the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, an American road safety agency which has opened several investigations into Tesla in recent years and which is one of the authorities having to approve the Cybercab before it rolls in large numbers on the roads. However, it is unlikely that Kamala Harris will do so according to her supporters, specifies the American site.
An opinion shared by Bryant Walker Smith, law professor and expert in autonomous cars. According to him, the vice-president will not put obstacles in the way in this sector.
Measures against X?
Kamala Harris could nevertheless take action against X regarding disinformation, a problem for which the social network is already in the sights of the European Union. Elon Musk himself fears that a victory for Kamala Harris would harm X, allowing his political opponents to target him.
“They’ll try to stop it any way they can. They might try to pass laws. They’ll try to sue the company, sue me,” he said in his interview with Tucker Carlson, as reported by the American magazine Fortune.
According to the billionaire, his adversaries could notably remove “section 230”, an article of an American law (the Communications Decency Act) which came into force in 1996 and which offers legal immunity to hosts concerning the content published by their users. This would “instantly bankrupt” X, he said. Hillary Clinton, who supports Kamala Harris, also called for repealing this article during an interview last September.
Whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris wins, one thing is certain: Elon Musk will have to expect some changes.
