The Swiss stock market remained down Monday morning, awaiting the American presidential election on Tuesday and monetary policy announcements from the American Federal Reserve (Fed) on Thursday. These events are likely to overshadow all other corporate news in the coming days.
No poll manages to decide between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump and never has the outcome of a presidential duel in the United States been so unpredictable, between two candidates who are completely opposed. According to the portal fivethirtyeight.com, Kamala Harris has 47.9% of voting intentions, compared to 47.0% for Donald Trump. A clear announcement of the winner will therefore be relatively unlikely on Wednesday morning.
The Democratic vice-president and the former Republican president continued on Sunday to travel through the key states which will decide whether America will open the doors of the White House to a woman for the first time or, on the contrary, send the billionaire back there.
“If the results come down to a few thousand votes difference in a handful of close races, Americans could face a wait of several days similar to that of 2020,” estimated John Plassard of Mirabaud Banque.
“The worst possible outcome for the markets would be a race that is too close and a contested result,” added Ipek Ozkardeskaya of Swissquote. According to the analyst, “in the short term, a victory for Kamala Harris could relieve Treasury bonds and international markets, while a victory for Donald Trump could resonate more strongly – and not necessarily in a good way – for the ‘euro and European markets due to threats of customs taxes’.
For Activtrades analyst Frank Sohlleder, “this means that the stock market week will be loaded with volatility, mainly coming from the United States”.
A majority of stars in the red
Around 10:36 a.m. on the Swiss Stock Exchange, the flagship SMI index fell 0.19% to 11,944.30 points, after opening down 0.17%. The SLI lost 0.19% to 1951.49 points and the SPI dropped 0.15% to 15,905.18 points.
A majority of star stocks remained in the red, still led by VAT Group (-1.4%), Swiss Re (-0.8%) and UBS (-0.7%). The St. Gallen vacuum pump equipment manufacturer saw its price target lowered by Stifel.
The three heavyweights of the rating Novartis (stable), Roche (+0.1%) and Nestlé (-0.5%) were heading in opposite directions.
On the other side of the table, SIG Group (+0.9%) remained in the lead, tied with Sonova (+0.9%) and Swatch Group (+0.9%). The Schaffhausen packaging manufacturer saw its price target lowered by Citigroup, but raised by Octavian. Both, however, confirmed their purchase recommendation.
On the broader market, Clariant (+0.8%) held its investor day. The specialty chemist maintains its medium-term growth forecasts and expects an increase in turnover of 4 to 6% and the Ebitda margin of 19 to 21% by 2027.
Adecco (+0.8%) accelerated. The personnel placement juggernaut is due to unveil its third quarter results on Tuesday and analysts surveyed by the AWP agency expect a decline in turnover to 5.8 billion euros.
Idorsia (-0.5%) reversed the positive trend at the opening. However, Deutsche Bank analysts raised their recommendation to “hold” from “sell” previously, while those at Octavian confirmed to “hold”. (AWP)
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