Throughout her long career as a pollster, Ann Selzer has earned the respect and admiration of her peers and journalists for her rigorous and rarely erroneous polling of ballots in Iowa, the rural Midwestern state where his business is located. However, this Saturday evening, she dropped a bomb. According to a survey carried out for the Des Moines Register and Mediacom, Kamala Harris is ahead of Donald Trump by 3 percentage points in Iowa, collecting 47% of voting intentions against 43% for her Republican rival.
Last June, Trump enjoyed an 18 percentage point lead over Joe Biden in the same state, a lead that was reduced to 4 percentage points over Kamala Harris in September. Trump won Iowa in 2016 and 2020.
“It’s hard for anyone to say they saw it coming,” Selzer told the Des Moines Register. “She has clearly risen to a leadership position. »
Robert Kennedy Jr, whose name still appears on the Iowa ballots, received 3% of voting intentions. A little more than 5% of voters are undecided or refuse to reveal their choices.
The poll indicates that women – particularly those who are older or politically independent – are driving the shift in voting intentions toward Harris.
“Age and gender are the two most dynamic factors driving these numbers,” Selzer said.
This poll will obviously delight the Harris team. We will see if she will also welcome the latest polls that the New York Times due to be published on Sunday.
(Photo GETTY IMAGES)
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