According to the latest figures published by the International Air Transport Association (IATA), global demand for passenger air transport increased by 13.8% in March 2024 compared to March 2023. A pace of growth above the average pre -pandemic, driven mainly by the rebound in international traffic (+18.9%).
Read also: Protectionism and taxes: traveling by plane across Africa, an expensive way of the cross
On the African continent, however, performances are mixed. With international traffic growth of 8.1% year-on-year, Africa shows the lowest growth among the major world regions. African airlines also saw their load factor fall by 1.9 points to 70.3%, the lowest level in the world.
African air connectivity: a persistent challenge
This poor performance nevertheless masks disparities depending on geographic areas and markets. North Africa, more connected to Europe, is benefiting from a resumption of tourism from the Old Continent. Southern Africa is also benefiting from a significant increase in air connections with Asia and the Middle East.
On the other hand, many countries in sub-Saharan Africa remain isolated from major global trade and tourism routes. The lack of suitable air infrastructure, security problems and the obsolescence of the fleets of certain carriers weaken their competitiveness.
Read also: Gabon: the future national airline called “Fly Gabon”
Another challenge is the slow reopening of airlines with China. Although the Asian giant has eased its restrictions, its connectivity with Africa represents only 16.5% of pre-Covid levels in the 1st quarter of 2024, compared to 65.4% with Asia-Pacific.
Increased competition and threats from Gulf companies
Beyond these structural difficulties, African air transport must today face a new competitive situation. Gulf companies, with modern fleets and efficient infrastructure, are actively restructuring their networks and strengthening their presence on the continent. The major flags of the Emirates, Qatar and Saudi Arabia are deploying ambitious strategies to redeploy their networks on the continent, to the detriment of already weakened local players. New low-cost companies are also stepping up to reshape the African air transport landscape.
Without forgetting one of the most formidable competitors of African companies in the region: Turkish Airlines. Very aggressive on the continent, Turkish closed the year 2023 with an increase of 23.5% in its domestic capacity and 16% in its international capacity compared to 2022. The company transported 83.4 million passengers in 2023.
The financial turbulence experienced by certain historic African companies, like South African Airways, also leaves the field open to new low-cost players aiming to redraw the map of regional air transport.
Read also: African air freight is gaining altitude
In a context of persistent inflationary pressures, the profitability of African carriers will also be put to the test. Their profit margins, traditionally low, could be weighed down by rising operating costs.
The latest performance figures from Africa’s leading airlines reflect the sector’s continuing challenges, despite encouraging signs of post-pandemic recovery. Delayed takeoff, financial turbulence and winds of competition blowing from the Persian Gulf, the African sky remains dotted with clouds to dissipate.
In the leading pack, Ethiopian Airlines consolidates its rank as the leading continental air force. With 13.7 million passengers transported in 2022-2023 and a 20% jump in profits to $6.1 billion, despite the impact of the Russo-Ukrainian war on costs, the Ethiopian national flagship constitutes the tree that hides the African forest.
Read also: Kenya Airways suspends flights to Kinshasa after detention of employees in DRC
On the East African side, Kenya Airways delivered a top-notch performance, recording 10.5 billion Kenyan shillings in operational profits in 2023, after 7 lean years. A feat enabled by a 35% growth in passenger traffic, to 5 million travelers.
Royal Air Maroc (RAM) is also raising the bar. At the end of April 2023, its sales had returned to 92% of their pre-Covid level with 3.2 million passengers, and operational profitability, at 1.2 billion dirhams. With a recent contract with the State, the Moroccan national pavilion now aims to position itself as a key player in the African sky.
A sign of a two-speed sector, the Egyptian company EgyptAir is keeping pace with 2.8 million passengers in the first quarter of 2023/2024, an increase of 6%. The national carrier of Cairo saw its financial indicators improve and its fleet expanded by 10 additional aircraft over the period.
Read also: Air transport: Air Côte d’Ivoire inaugurates a new direct line Abidjan-Casablanca
Behind this leading quartet, however, the sky is clouding over again for many other African players. The lack of infrastructure, security and the obsolescence of the fleets still weigh down their margins and their competitiveness in the face of stiff competition from the latest planes and airports of the major players in the Persian Gulf.
Many landlocked countries in sub-Saharan Africa also struggle to connect to major tourist and commercial flows. The slow recovery of traffic with China is also weighing, with Beijing still representing only 16.5% of pre-pandemic air connections in the 1st quarter of 2024.
Under the threat of a persistent surge in fuel prices, the profitability of many operators will remain restricted. Their traditionally shaky finances risk being put to the test in this new global inflationary context.
Read also: Senegal: 11 injured in Boeing incident, Dakar airport closed
For many experts, the future of air transport in Africa will depend on the capacity and willingness of companies and States to invest massively in the modernization of infrastructure, the training of personnel and the renewal of aging fleets. A crucial transition for this industry, which is vital to the opening up and economic growth of the continent.
