The Paris Stock Exchange is expected to be generally stable at its opening this Thursday, in the wake of an erratic close in New York. If the Dow Jones rose by 0.44%, the S&P 500 remained unchanged and the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.18%. Note that this is the sixth session of increase in a row for the large industrial index, its best series this year. The Cac 40 has now settled back well above the threshold of 8,000 points to return to 1.5% of its historic peak of 8,253.59 points recorded on March 28 of this year.
Now that the season for publishing quarterly figures has generally passed (we are still waiting for Home Depot and Walmart next week, then Nvidia on May 22), investors are once again closely monitoring economic statistics and various interventions by members of the Fed . Boston Fed President Susan Collins said on Wednesday that the central bank’s interest rate policy will likely need to remain at its current level until inflation moves “sustainably” toward the target. 2% of the institution. The FedWatch tool developed by CME Group based on Fed funds futures contracts still suggests a first easing across the Atlantic in September, with a probability of 65.7%.
Watch out for renewed volatility, says UBS
At UBS, we emphasize that several elements could now slow down market dynamics. “ Although we continue to see a positive macroeconomic backdrop for risk assets, investors must remain vigilant in the face of a range of economic and geopolitical risks that could increase market volatility. », Estimates Mark Haefele, investment director for wealth management at the Swiss bank. He points in particular to the persistent uncertainties surrounding a ceasefire agreement in Gaza, a potentially disinflationary trend. vulnerable » and the next deadline of the American presidential election.
This Thursday, we will focus at the beginning of the afternoon on weekly unemployment claims in the United States. The Bloomberg consensus expects 214,000 applications for unemployment benefits, compared to 208,000 last week. Another meeting of the day, the Bank of England will make its monetary policy decision in the middle of the day. No change is expected: the BoE should once again maintain its key “repo” rate at 5.25%, the highest since February 2008, as progress on underlying inflation seems a little too slow. The central bank could nevertheless prepare people’s minds for an easing of the interest rate this summer, most probably in August.
In China, exports rose 1.5% year-on-year in April, in line with expectations, while imports climbed 8.4%, according to customs agency data. The consensus expected a lower increase in imports (4.8%). In March, exports and imports both fell year-on-year.
