One week after the FED’s FOMC, 3 sessions after the US ‘NFP’, the easing of rates continues in the United States.
In the absence of any notable statistics this Tuesday, the US T-Bonds erased -6 Points of yield towards 4.426%, the ‘2 years’ stagnated on the other hand towards 4.8100% (-1.2 Points), which means that the The inversion of the curve is getting worse (technical warning sign of economic slowdown).
However, a slowdown seems to have been ruled out by the OECD, which has revised upwards its growth forecasts in the United States, from +0.5% to 2.6% (after 2.5% in 2023).
Debts denominated in Euro also erase -6Pts with OATs at 2.921% and Bunds at 2.417%… Italian BTPs only erase -3.5Pt towards 3.7700%, Spanish Bonos -5.5% at 3.2000%.
On the statistics front, seasonally adjusted retail sales volume increased by 0.8% in March in the eurozone and by 1.2% in the EU, compared to February 2024, according to estimates from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union.
In France, France’s trade balance improved slightly in March, according to CVS-CJO data from the customs administration, the deficit having thus been reduced to 5.47 billion euros after 5, 61 billion in February.
This timid improvement reflects a 2.9% increase in French exports from one month to the next, to more than 52.2 billion euros, while imports increased at the same time by less than 2.4%, to 57.7 billion.
On the eve of the public holidays (Armistice and Ascension) and in the absence of leading economic indicators, the positive trend in force since last Thursday continues.
Across the Channel, ‘Gilts’ are aligned with T-Bonds and our OATs with -6Pts at 4.1670%.
Copyright (c) 2024 CercleFinance.com. All rights reserved.
){kind=link}