Will the health of the labor market resist future budget cuts? It’s not certain. And for good reason: over the past year, three out of four jobs created have been public jobs. Between mid-2023 and mid-2024, the public sector is thus the source of 95,000 new jobs (+ 1.2%), out of a total – public and private combined – of 129,000, according to the National Institute of statistics and economic studies (INSEE).
“Despite a much smaller workforce [on dénombre 21 millions de salariés dans le privé pour 6 millions dans le public, au deuxième trimestre 2024], public sector employment contributes at least as strongly to overall growth over one year as the private sector”summarizes Vladimir Passeron, head of the employment and earned income department at INSEE. “Public employment has never been so dynamic since the election of Emmanuel Macron in 2017 », observes Mathieu Plane, deputy director of the analysis and forecasting department at the French Observatory of Economic Conditions.
Over the two years 2021 and 2022, the rate of progression was more moderate (respectively + 0.4% and + 0.3%). Although detailed data is not yet available for 2023, INSEE figures show that the workforce increased more in 2022 in the state civil service (+ 0.6%) than in the hospital civil service (+ 0). .1%) or local authorities (stability).
Read also | Article reserved for our subscribers Civil service salaries fell in 2022, according to an INSEE study
Add to your selections
Another notable point: hiring is mainly done on a contractual basis, and not on a statutory basis, sometimes with very short fixed-term contracts. And more than one in five agents working in the public sector is now on contract.
Slowdown in the private sector
In a context of spiraling deficits, this increase in public personnel “can alert, estimates Stéphane Colliac, economist at BNP Paribas. But we must first see for what needs these jobs were created. After Covid-19, we changed perspectives and created many positions in health or education ». In the summer of 2020, after the health crisis due to Covid-19, the Ségur de la santé resulted in 15,000 recruitments at the hospital. The increase in numbers can also be explained, underlines Mr. Passeron, by the fact that seniors stay in their jobs longer due to the pension reform.
The fact remains that the relative dynamics of public employment also comes from the slowdown appearing in the private sector. Since the summer, employment has barely progressed, and has even fallen slightly in temporary work and construction. “Private employment is more linked to the economic situation than public employment, and it is therefore losing ground more” while growth weakens, explains Mr. Colliac.
You have 20.76% of this article left to read. The rest is reserved for subscribers.
