The JDD. Despite the fear, two rating agencies (Moodie’s and Fitch ratings) out of three have, to date, not downgraded France’s rating. Concretely, what would we have had to fear?
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Maël Bernier. France has not been downgraded, that in itself is already good news. A third agency (Standards & Poors, editor’s note) will soon give its opinion, but it should logically maintain its rating. If this were lowered, it would become extremely complicated for our borrowing rates. To pay its debt, the French state goes to the markets. He now borrows with 10-year OATs with a rate of 3%. A drop in rating would only increase the rate.
But would this deterioration have an influence on the loans of natural and legal persons?
On loans already taken out: no change. And since 2008, we no longer have variable rate loans. For those to come, we see rather stabilization of rates. We hoped to go down to 3.50% for the summer, but we will instead stay on the average of 3.80% over 20 years. Currently, banks borrow 3%. If the government sends signals of somewhat correct management, we can hope to achieve this 3.5%, but we will not go beyond with current inflation.
If savings are not made, will the rating inevitably be downgraded?
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If we do nothing to review public spending, Yes. However, Europe is a bit of a class where a lot of students are bad, but where some are less so than others. However, we must keep in mind that countries like Greece, Italy or Spain are in more fragile situations than France. Lenders’ confidence in France remains strong, so this will limit the damage.
