The military shock that shakes the planet finance
On May 7, 2025, the fragile balance between two nuclear powers has sold. India has launched a military operation called Sindoortargeting nine sites in Pakistan. This offensive follows a terrorist attack that struck the tourist town of Pahalgam on April 22, costing 26 Indian citizens. In response, Islamabad has shot down several combat aircraft and intensified its artillery fire, generating important human losses on both sides.
Read also: gold flies away, the markets panic: this scenario between India and Pakistan could tip everything
This confrontation constitutes The most serious bilateral crisis since Kargil In 1999. At least 38 people were killed during shooting. Calls for de -escalation are multiplying in the chancelleries, but the markets do not wait: uncertainty already weighs heavily on risky assets.
Gold shines in turmoil: Back to security
From the first signs of tension, capital repositioned. L’orperceived for centuries as a rampart against chaosattracts attention again. Each quivering diplomatic or military reactivates the automatisms of investors.
Comparisons with 2008 are resurfaced. At the time, the collapse of the banking system had propelled the ounce at record levels. Today, the spectrum of a regional conflict with global benefits could push gold far beyond historical thresholds.
According to our expert: a nuclear war threatens Asia: why the course of gold could explode like never before
Some analysts evoke a extreme scenario : a course in the reaching ounce 100 000 €. If this hypothesis remains speculative, it is not dismissed by the financial circles most exposed to the Indo-Pakistani area.
Under tension markets, folding coins, investors on the alert
The first tremors are already visible. There Indian Roupie fell 0.5 % against the dollar, recording its highest monthly drop. This slide illustrates the loss of confidence of international operators.
Behind the scenes, the large companies present on site activate their crisis protocols. Logistics channels are threatened, as is access to energy in certain areas. India has also just unilaterally suspend the Industry Water Treaty, a strategic agreement for Pakistan. This decision could add a economic dimension to military confrontation.
Foreign investors do not wait. The gradual disengagement of emerging markets is confirmed, while the refuges values gain in attractiveness. Gold is again positioned as a protective pillar.
How far can gold mount? Three trajectories under surveillance
The situation remains unpredictable, but three scenarios dominate the modeling of analysts:
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Extended open conflict
A regional conflagration would trigger a gold rush, doped by the fear of world repercussions. The scarcity of supply in the face of the outbreak of demand could justify a spectacular price increase. -
Partial diplomatic appeasement
An in extremis agreement, even fragile, would allow the markets to blow. Gold would keep its upward dynamic without exploding. -
Sanctions and commercial ruptures
If the major powers intervene through economic means, the exchange flows may be strongly disturbed. Investors could then strengthen their positions on gold in anticipation of a global contraction.
The spotlights are on South Asia. Each declaration, each military movement or diplomatic attempt is dissected with a magnifying glass. Yellow metal stands, silent but powerful, a valuable guard in this tumult. Investors experienced it: Gold does not wait – it anticipates.
