A survey provides for a very tight duel between Édouard Philippe and the RN candidate in the second round

According to a large survey carried out with 10,000 people and published Monday May 5, 2025, a tight duel in the second round between Édouard Philippe and the candidate of the National Rally (RN), Jordan Bardella or Marine Le Pen, is at this stage the dominant hypothesis for the presidential election of 2027.

In this Ifop survey carried out in April for the hexagon statistics observatory, the RN candidate arrives in the lead in the 1st round, with 32 to 35% of voting intentions, whatever the configuration tested and without significant difference between Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella. Far behind, Édouard Philippe arrives clearly in second position as a single candidate of the central block, and does better than Gabriel Attal in this hypothesis (22% against 14%).

Read too
Survey: François Bayrou at the bottom for a Prime Minister under the Fifth Republic

The survey starts from the principle that there will be at least two candidates on the left, that of Jean-Luc Mélenchon and another (Raphaël Glucksmann or François Ruffin). In the scenario where the left is only represented by Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Raphaël Glucksmann, the advantage comes up slightly to the latter, with 15% of the voting intentions against 13%. Conversely, if François Ruffin is opposed to Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the latter retains an advance of 2 points (12% against 10%).

Bruno Retailleau would do better than Laurent Wauquiez

On the right, Bruno Retailleau would do better than Laurent Wauquiez but without exceeding 10% in the event of the presence of Édouard Philippe. In the second round, the survey hypothesizes an almost perfect balance (50/50) in the event of a face to face between the mayor of Le Havre and Jordan Bardella, and 52% against 48% in favor of Philippe opposed to Marine Le Pen. In both cases, 28% of respondents, however, formulate no intention to vote at this stage, a very high figure.

The survey also tests several hypotheses, less likely at this stage, second round for Jordan Bardella who would win against Gabriel Attal (52/48), Bruno Retailleau (53/47) and Jean-Luc Mélenchon (67/33). Again, many voters refuse to consider such scenarios, up to 41% for a Mélenchon/Bardella duel.

The investigation, which does not constitute an anticipation but gives an indication of the balance of power and dynamics at time T, was carried out from April 11 to 30 with a sample of 9,128 people registered on the electoral lists, extracted from a sample of 10,000 people, representative of the French population aged 18 and over. Hexagon is a fairly recent observatory that wants to describe “France in figures”.