It was to be the apotheosis of Trumpian genius, his art of deal And its ability to build power relations with all these countries that “rip” the United States. It was a financial and political fiasco: fall in the scholarship, major bond market crisis, weakening of the dollar, loss of confidence in investors and consumers, collapse of tourist reservations to the country. Chaos was such that a glorious retirement was hastily organized from April 9. This delusional week has not only confirmed what many already knew about Donald Trump, namely his economic ignorance, his inconstancy, his lack of vision, and his megalomania. The financial markets cruelly reminded him that international trade is not a set of cubes that are demolished and rebuilt as he pleases. In a much more interesting way, she showed that a new post-American world order was possible and desirable, and that the weakening of the American imperium was a reality. Donald Trump’s disorderly and absurd decisions have highlighted this decline, accelerating an awareness of the rest of the world that a new order must be built.
In his editorial of Thursday, April 10, the Financial Times Written: “Trump’s disorderly efforts to completely reorganize the world trade have shaken all the pillars that support a reserve currency: stability, reliability, a solid economic policy and the rule of law. The bond markets reacted by launching a clear warning: the systems may change; A post-Dollar world is possible. Rebuilding confidence will be difficult … The financial domination of the United States can no longer be considered acquired. This financial domination is based on a currency that serves as a global reserve (60% of global exchange reserves are held in dollars), and on a bond market for treasury bills considered to be the deepest, the surest and the most liquid in the world. But all of this requires confidence and reciprocity. Countries that have trade surpluses with the United States invest them as treasury bills, allowing them to finance their debt at very advantageous rates. And what happened this week is a reminder that American debt is in the hands of foreign investors, especially Japanese, who have the widest share ($ 1000 billion), followed by the Chinese (760 billion). The punishment inflicted on the US bond market is the direct consequence of ” liberation day », She exhibited American fragility and shown the way to reorganize the global financial market.
A return to State ai ante is absolutely impossible, not only because Trump’s swers will continue, but also because the trade war triggered by the United States against China is far from over, and that a victory for China is the most likely hypothesis. In this kind of showdown where peoples suffer from the decisions of their rulers, it is power that can support the longest suffering to his people who prevail. And, from this point of view, Xi Jinping was several lengths ahead of Donald Trump, even if he dreams of a dictator Maga. The Chinese still have a perennial memory of unequal treaties, and the weapons available to China, the devaluation of the Yuan, the claims on American debt and especially the control of rare earths, have something to make the United States folding. The subtle embargo triggered on rare earths, on the grounds that it takes time to rewrite export licenses, gives cold sweats to all American manufacturers of the defense industries, electronics or automobiles, their production lines risking to stop in the very short term. Trumpian chaos is certainly global, but it is in the United States that it already has the most impact.
In addition, customs duties maintained with Europe and Asia (excluding China) remain prohibitive, and a global recession is looming on the horizon. The crisis of confidence is sustainable, it affects all economic players and most countries, starting with those of the European Union, develop bypass strategies of the United States and try to establish autonomous trade agreements. Dependence on the United States, whether business, defense or technology, has become too important for the rest of the world to continue to accept it. This new post-American order will take time to build itself but the process is engaged and we do not see what could stop it.
