TV5MONDE: The meeting on the sidelines of the funeral of pope Francis between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky made the headlines. We had not seen them together since the heated meeting of February 28. Both parties talk about “Good meeting” or “Very productive meeting”. Can we expect warming the American-Ukrainian relationship?
David TErtrie, Lecturer in Political Science at the Catholic Institute for Higher Studies, specialist in Russia, and director of the French Observatory of BRICS : It’s quite difficult to say, but what is certain is that the first went wrong. Obviously, he had dissatisfaction on the American side. The fact that President Zelensky refused Trump’s general vision on how to end the conflict did not like.
Donald Trump wants a quick ceasefire and conclude this conflict without further delay. David TEURTRI, lecturer, specialist in Russia
Since then, there has been a number of developments. Now on the Ukrainian or even European side, no one calls into question the need for a ceasefire, when there are still a few weeks ago, many claimed that the conflict could not stop under these conditions and that the effort had to be continued. There was therefore a rapprochement of the positions. Now Europeans and Ukrainians claim that it would take a fire without condition and that negotiations should be put in place. The Russians are on the opposite position, that is to say that they already want significant advances. They also want to know what will be the general format of a possible peace agreement or at least an end of the conflict before accepting a cease-fire.
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TV5MONDE: In recent days Donald Trump has expressed doubts about Vladimir Putin’s will to end the war, even a decline in his support for his counterpart, by evoking possible financial sanctions. Is it a “disenchantment” or additional pressure?
David Turrtry : What is certain is that there was the impression in particular in the first weeks after the arrival of Donald Trump in power, that there was practically a reversal of alliances and a practically total alignment of American and Russian positions on the conflict. Admittedly, indeed, a certain number of elements and declarations of Donald Trump were going in the direction of Moscow, but there is already a point which is not necessarily well seen on the part of the Russians, it is that Donald Trump precisely wants a rapid ceasefire and conclude this conflict without further delay. However, insofar as Russia is progressing in the field, and that Moscow thinks that time plays in its favor, the Kremlin is not very in a hurry. The pressure exerted by the United States to conclude the conflict is therefore not necessarily well seen by the Kremlin.
(Goodbye War in Ukraine: Donald Trump puts pressure
What obviously interests the Russians are the already important concessions that the Trump administration seems to grant them. But on the other hand, these concessions may still be deemed insufficient. To return to the issue of sanctions, this is not the first time that Donald Trump has agitated the prospect of introducing new sanctions. About a month ago, he made declarations of the same type against Moscow. Since then, there has been no sanction implemented. This remained rather declarative. Especially since it was the Biden administration that had already put in mass sanctions and the United States no longer have many taking on Russia from this point of view. It is therefore not only a desire by Donald Trump. Besides, Russian-American trade is very low, residual.
Then, is there a start of disenchantment or rebalancing? Indeed, the latest declarations and the fact that they have been repeated may suggest a desire to rebalance. In the recent declarations of President Trump, we can see that the trade war as it implements it is perhaps even more destabilizing.
However, Trump’s trusted man for the settlement of this conflict is in very regular meetings with the Russian emissaries, including at most summit with Vladimir Putin. Interactions are not the same.
In one way or other, there will be acceptance that Ukraine does not reach NATO and that a priori, the territories conquered by the Russians remain controlled by Russia. David Turrtry
TV5MONDE: Precisely, the American emissary of Donald Trump with Russia, Steve Witkoff, multiplied the meetings with Putin, the last having taken place last Friday. Again, the declarations of the two parties are positive on this meeting. The horizon of an agreement seems close. Where is American diplomacy really?
David Turrtry : What is certain is that it is a file that is taken very seriously. There is a real effort of the American administration to move towards an agreement. This is an important and central point of Donald Trump’s electoral program for his foreign policy. The efforts are real. The United States would like to succeed.
In one way or other, there will be acceptance that Ukraine does not reach NATO and that a priori, the territories conquered by the Russians remain controlled by Russia. David Turrtry
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Now there are the general principles of an outing of the crisis that are emerging. In one way or other, there will be acceptance that Ukraine does not reach NATO and that a priori, the territories conquered by the Russians remain controlled by Russia. These two big points now seem to be roughly accepted by everyone. But the realization of these points remains essential. What does NATO do not mean? It is simply a political declaration. The Anglo-Saxon press mentioned it: once Donald Trump is gone, this could be called into question. From a Russian point of view, this decision should be almost inscribed in the Ukrainian Constitution.
Then who will control this ceasefire? What will be the procedures for control but also possibly sanctions? Will there be a reduction in troops on both sides? Regarding the territories, will they simply de facto in the hands of the Russians and not more? Or will there be a form of recognition? We saw it for Crimea. The Russians claim four Ukrainian regions but they do not control them completely. We do not know if they are ready to accept to stop where they are or if they wish to continue to advance in these regions.
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There are advances on the general framework of a ceasefire, but on the concrete implementation of the conditions, this still seems very complicated.
TV5MONDE: There remains the question of minerals and American pressure on Ukraine to give them access to these resources. If Zelensky wants to have peace, is he obliged to give in on this question?
David Turrtry : President Zelensky is in very bad posture in reality, because it will be necessary to activate the end of the conflict. As long as the hard conflict, he is the war chief. Most of his opponents agree that there can be no election in this situation. And there is still hope for part of Ukrainian public opinion that there is a reversal of situation. If tomorrow he signs an agreement that implies that territories remain in Russia, that Ukraine will not go into NATO, etc., what will be its assessment for the Ukrainian population, not to mention the hundreds of thousands of deaths that have been recorded in recent years? This may be extremely hard for him at the end of the conflict. Will he still have the internal authority to enforce these very unpopular decisions for a good part of the Ukrainian public opinion?
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As for resources, it is not clear. What is presented by the Trump administration is a guarantee of the continuation of support for Ukraine. But sometimes, it is presented as a desire to be reimbursed for the previous help, that is to say without engaging in the continuation of the aid. You can see even a form of blackmail.
A certain number of analysts ask the question of whether these resources are so important as some have been able to write. Perhaps they are only a pretext to say listen ‘if you do not sign this agreement, we let you go.
If we really talk about diplomacy, the diplomatic weight of the European Union is extremely low. David Turrtry
TV5MONDE: We talked about realizing alliances with the arrival of Donald Trump in power. Europe has found itself alone, especially in the aid granted to Ukraine. Is the EU today a diplomatic weight to reach a peace agreement in Ukraine?
David Turrtry : If we really talk about diplomacy, the diplomatic weight of the European Union is extremely low. The proof is that the EU institution in no way participates in negotiations.
It is rather France and the United Kingdom that were associated from afar, by the Americans.
On the Russian side, there is an explicit desire to exclude Europeans, at least at first. And it is explained by the fact that Europe having aligned completely on the United States, they prefer to speak to the capital that counts. HAS Moscow, they were talking squarely about vassalage.
Then, in a way with Trump, Washington seems to partially share this vision, believing that Europeans will have to line up once the main lines of an agreement are accepted. All this obviously does not promote European positions. There is another element that also plays in the radical position of Moscow. There was already a disenchantment, before the start of the war in Ukraine between Russia and the European Union. The appointment of Kaja Kallas, who comes from Estonia and which is perceived and in his declarations as being the most radically Russian-skeptical of the European Union, in the position of high representative to the EU foreign policy, does not facilitate a posture of negotiations.
The painting is still very dark, but to qualify, there are the sanctions, and the post-war reconstructions. Russia is a priori on a lifting of sanctions, and this cannot be done without the agreement of the EU. The United States is counting on a check for Europeans for this. It will be the role to play in the EU.
