The Federal Statistics Office (OFS) establishes scenarios for the demographic development of Switzerland and adapts them regularly to the most recent data. The updated figures were published on April 15, 2025. It turns out that net immigration has been higher in recent years than the reference scenario provided for, among other things due to extraordinary events such as war in Ukraine. Conversely, the birth rate and life expectancy have been slightly lower. The forecasts were adjusted accordingly.
Unchanged assessment of economiesuisse
Based on the previous reference scenario, Economiesuisse had indicated that each year the number of people retired was higher than that of young people entering the labor market. In an extended scenario, Economiesuisse and the Swiss employers’ Union (UPS) calculated that some 460,000 full -time workers will be lacking in Switzerland within ten years. In one case as in the other, the indigenous active population was considered as a priority. The updating of the OFS scenarios hardly modifies these dark perspectives. Switzerland has a structural problem. The shortage of labor will further increase due to demographic aging.
Better exploit the potential for native labor and increase productivity
To reduce the shortage of labor, it is necessary to better exploit the potential of the native workforce. Politics must move forward and implement the measures in eight points. In addition, it is important to improve the framework conditions in a targeted manner in order to promote a solid development of productivity in the coming years.
Immigration in the labor market is part of the solution
The scenario of Economiesuisse and the UPS also shows that the measures taken on a national scale will not be enough to fully fill the lack of labor. To be able to continue to create wealth, Switzerland will need foreign workers. Given demographic evolution, being attractive to them is an advantage. Entire regions of Europe are faced with a decrease in the active population. Competition to attract the workforce will intensify accordingly. It is therefore likely that Switzerland will lose its attractiveness. Switzerland would therefore do well not to play this advantage lightly, with the sole purpose of launching political signal. In the fields where net immigration leads to bottlenecks, as in the housing market or in transport infrastructure, it is necessary to act in a targeted manner.
