The complex waltz of political defectors

With 169 deputies elected to the House of Commons following the election of April 28, Mark Carney is only three seats in his majority. This week, the eyes were riveted on members of the opposition parties who could be tempted to desert their political party to grow the liberal ranks and allow them to reach the magic number of 172 seats.

But convincing a deputy to repudiate his political allegiances is not done by slamming fingers, according to specialists in the federal scene.

Oh, it’s not easysaid the former neo-democratic deputy in British Columbia Nathan Cullen. You have to find someone, say, great moral flexibility.

The defector never really acquires the party’s confidence that welcomes him, and is inevitably hated by the party he leftDit M. Culles. It is the loneliness that awaits him.

Recall that, if the deputies are elected under a political banner, nothing, in the Canadian parliamentary system, obliges them to remain members of their party. It is therefore possible for them cross the other side of the room, according to the expression devoted.

On Friday, during his first press conference after the election, the Prime Minister was questioned about the possibility of woning deputies from other political parties so that they grant him the handful of seats that he lacks his majority.

Mark Carney did not answer the question directly, but he nevertheless said that he had obtained, according to him, the “strong mandate” he hoped for.

Eyes riveted on the NPD

Liberal strategists could be tempted to peck in the remains of the new democratic party to find prospects. After all, the NPD has just known the worst electoral score in its history. He lost his leader and his official party status to the municipalities. Only seven deputies survived the collapse of his supports.

Except that several of the neo-democratic elected officials have already indicated that their loyalty was not for sale.

I am proud to be a member of NPD,, among others, said Jenny Kwan, re-elected in Vancouver-Est with a considerable advance of nearly 5,000 votes. I am always open to work with other parties to develop public policies, but I am a neo-democrat, and I will remain so.

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The same goes for Gord Johns, re-elected in Courtenay-Alberni, also in British Columbia. This is not an optionhe replied to CBC.

I am a neo-democratic, and proud of being. It is not even something that I would envisage, regardless of the scenario.

Loyalty and moral troops

Another challenge for strategists in search of defectors: they must aim for a deputy who holds a district that, realizing, the liberals could keep during the next election, explains Christopher Cochrane, professor of political science at the University of Toronto.

Otherwise, it’s over for this person as soon as an election is triggeredhe said. This is the kind of thing that can cool the ardors of a possible defector.

To this is added, according to Mr. Cochrane, the stake of the morale of liberal troops.

If a deputy jumps into the opposing team, usually expects to get something in return. The defector could thus be offered a position in the cabinet, or another major assignment, to the detriment of the early liberal deputies who patiently awaited their turn.

It could cause morale and loyalty problemsexplains Christopher Cochrane.

When you have a very short majority, the last thing you want is to provoke, in any way whatsoever, a revolt in your back-ban.

Significant cases

The cases of political defectors are rather rare, but some are nonetheless significant.

We think of Belinda Stronach, elected conservative who had attempted, in 2004, to take the head of the party, but who, a year later, had joined the ranks of the Liberals of Paul Martin, then at the head of a minority government. His defection towards the Liberals had thwarted the plans of the conservative chief, Stephen Harper, to bring down the government and to precipitate an election.

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As soon as it entered the Liberal Caucus, Ms. Stronach joined the Council of Ministers. It had inherited the Ministry of Human Resources and Competence Development, in addition to that of democratic renewal.

Also comes in mind the case of David Emerson, re-elected under the liberal banner in 2006 in the county of Vancouver-Tingsway.

However, the Excess Day at Rideau Hall, it is not as a liberal deputy that he was sworn in, but as a conservative deputy. The turnaround had caused a general surprise, since the negotiations were made without the knowledge of the Liberal Caucus, of the media, but also of most of the conservative elected officials.

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The case had launched an investigation by the Ethics Commissioner, who ended up bleaching David Emerson and Stephen Harper.

Let us also quote the passage of Jenica Atwin as MP for Fredericton. First elected to the Green Party of Canada in 2019, marking the first breakthrough of the ecological party outside the British Columbia, Ms. Atwin joined the Liberal Party in 2021, after a quarrel with the head of the Greens of the time, Annamie Paul, on the issue of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Jenica Atwin had nevertheless managed to be re -elected in 2021 in Fredericton, this time under the liberal banner. She chose not to request a third term in 2025.

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No emergency to obtain a majority

On the liberal side, we do not be overly concerned about obtaining an absolute majority, at least, according to the Stevie O’Brien strategist, interviewed by CBC.

It is that, according to her, no party has the will to return to the polls in the close future. It is quite possible, therefore, to obtain the necessary supports at the right times in order to avoid the triggering of an early election.

The NPD no longer has a chef, she recalls, and the Bloc Québécois promised in the campaign of work out With the government of Mark Carney to face the threats of Donald Trump.

For the next two years at least, I do not believe that there is an emergency to court or make promises to other partiesshe says.

According to a text by Mark Gollom, of CBC