Live: at the Vatican, the conclave to elect the successor to Pope Francis is preparing

When will we see the first smoke (unless there is a huge black surprise)?

Only one vote will take place today, in the afternoon. The first smoke – which, unless a huge surprise, will not be white – is expected for 7 p.m.

The first vote of the conclave is above all an opportunity to weigh the various applications – an election from the first vote seems largely impossible, the conditions of a two -thirds majority for a candidate do not seem to be met. After this first ballot, if we trust the estimates of the previous conclaves, a dozen names are capable of aggregating more than two votes. The cardinals will of course be oriented by the choice of their colleagues, and will see who is in the lead. Withdrawals – sometimes even media papabiles – could take place from this first ballot, which could thus deflate certain boaudruches.

However, Cardinal Filoni, a key figure of a large voter who could be part of the papabiletold the Italian press which asked him the question of whether the name of the pope was found before May 7: ” We will make it “(” We will be able to know what the name will be. “)

A Vatican source advises us to read this amazing statement as follows: “Today there are three camps: Erdo, Avin and Parolin. It seems that Erdo’s supporters are ready to converge, unlike those of Avline and Parolin. This first vote will make it possible to understand whether these two applications are really supported by the college ”. The decision will therefore be given the next day, depending on the strength of the various applications: “In the afternoon of 8, it will be necessary to make a decision: either to go, or to camp in its positions. And on the 9th, this choice will be posed again: yielding or heading ”.

The duration of the conclave: an index to guess the next pope?

In the last century, the duration of the conclave had a clear tendency to shorten compared to previous times.

About 3 months in the 18th century, and another 24 days in the 19th century, the conclaves only lasted 4 days on average in the 20th century, with, again, a shorter duration over time: another 4 days to elect John XXIII in 1958, but only 3 for Paul VI in 1963 and Jean-Paul II in 1978, while the election of the latter pope had been considered difficult, with a blockage between progressives and Conservative.

In the 21st century, Benoît XVI in 2005 and François in 2013 were only elected after 2 days – Benedict XVI in a ballot less than François – which installed the idea of ​​a new standard: if, next Friday evening, the smoke that comes out of the headquarters of the Sistine Chapel is always black, this will mean that the future Pope is more badly elected than his two predecessors, which could cause future disputes.

In the opinion of many observers, the cardinals have an interest in not seeing the conclave drag on, under penalty of undermining, refuse to be willing tothe legitimacy of the one they choose. At the same time, a short conclave is a challenge, because the cardinals know each other very little and are more than ever crumbled. This is what makes the outcome of this conclave much more uncertain than during the previous ones.

What is mass for choosing a pope ?

It takes place this morning, the opening day of the conclave, in the Saint-Pierre basilica, chaired by Cardinal-Doyen Giovanni Battista Re and concelebrated by all the cardinals: liturgical ceremony-a votive mass of the Holy Spirit, with red liturgical ornaments-it recalls the strong sacred dimension of the pope’s election; The cardinals invoke the Holy Spirit there so that it descends on them and enlighten their choice, and pray for the Church.

After mass, the cardinals voters go to procession to the Pauline chapel of the apostolic palace (private chapel of the sovereign pontiff, closed to the public), then to the Sistine Chapel, singing the litany of the Saints and the anthem of I came Creator Gregorian anthem from the ninth century.

All the conclaves have taken place in the Sistine Chapel since 1878. Previously, the first conclaves of the 19th century took place in the Pauline chapel of the Palais du Quirinal, then summer residence of the Pope, monarch of church states, and since 1946 official residence of the President of the Italian Republic. Since the Constitution The universe dominic of the flock From John Paul II, the conclave must be held in the Sistine Chapel.

What is the program for the day?

133 Cardinals voters have gathered in Saint-Pierre for about an hour for mass for choosing a pope.

After mass, the cardinals voters go to procession to the Pauline chapel, then to the Sistine Chapel, singing the litany of the Saints and the anthem of Creator.

Around 4:30 p.m., the cardinals will take an oath on the Gospels and the Master of Celebrations, Mgr Diego Ravelli, will pronounce the famous ” Outside all (“Everyone outside!”).

In the secret of the Sistine Chapel will start the conclave.

Monitoring its smooth running will be ensured under the supervision of Camerlingue, Cardinal Kevin Farrell, assisted by three cardinals assistants for the time.

To understand the seven stages that will lead to theWe have a popefind the dedicated page on our conclave observatory.

Hello and welcome to this direct – we resisted the persistent temptation to call it concludedlive

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