The exchange market marks a distrust of the dollar on the eve of the announcement of monetary policy decisions of the reserve by Fed (whose FOMC begins on Tuesday).
The ‘$ -Index’ relapse of -0.6% to 99.35 and it owes it mainly to the increase in Yen (+0.7% to 142.7), the book (+0.5%) and to a lesser extent of the euro which grabbed 0.35%, around $ 1,1355.
Will Jerome Powell let the Fed priorities show tomorrow (currently, is to fight inflation) in view of the lower economic signals of the last days, except the job that remains robust?
“One of the objectives of the Fed meeting will be to clearly establish its priorities: support for growth or the fight against inflationary pressures’, underlines Christopher Dembik, investment strategy advisor at Pictet Asset Management.
‘It will make disappointed’, warns the analyst.
And indeed, Jerome Powell should not make spectacular announcements so as not to come to contradict his latest statements which resounded as a refusal to give in to Donald Trump on the rate decreases.
While waiting for the Fed announcements, the latest US-available figure concerned the trade deficit of the United States.
It increased by +14% to -140.5MDS $ in March, or +$ 17.3MDS compared to that of 123.2 billion from the previous month (which was slightly revised from an initial estimate of 122.7 billion), according to the Commerce Department.
This degradation of one month on the other results from an increase of 4.4% of imports of goods and services, to $ 419 billion, while exports remained almost inchanged to 278.5 billion.
-By position, the increase in the overall deficit is attributable to an increase in the deficit of goods of $ 16.5 billion, to 163.5 billion, while the excess of services was plunted by 0.8 billion to be 23 billion.
In Europe, the final figures for PMI surveys in the service sector in Europe for the month of April were published this morning.
If the HCOB PMI Composite PMI index of the overall euro zone activity registered above the 50 bar for a fourth consecutive month in April, its withdrawal from 50.9 in March to 50.4 indicates a slowdown in growth during the month.
The modest growth in the global activity of the region almost exclusively based on the good performance of the manufacturing sector in April, the activity in that of services having almost stagnated during the last period of survey.
Four of the five countries covered by the survey, starting with Ireland, recorded growth in their activity at the start of the second quarter. France continues to be an exception, its overall activity having indeed decreased for an eighth consecutive month.
Published at 11:00 am, the industrial production price index of the euro zone emerged at +1.6% and goes in the direction of a ‘moderation’ that the drop in energy prices could perpetuate, which would rule out the risk of prices’ rebound, including if Trump maintains its prices.
After their heavy correction of the day before, oil prices are trying to bounce back, the prospect of the next opening of commercial negotiations between the United States and China winning it on the announcement of a future increase in the production of OPEC+countries.
In London, the barrel of Brent gained 3.5%, at $ 62.3, the ‘WTI’ dates back +4% to $ 59.5 on the Nymex.
Gold does even better with a rebound of +5%, in contact with $ 3,421 (2nd best fence in potential history at 10 p.m.): that is more than $ 200 taken up in 48 hours … There is certainly a strong ‘anticipation behind such a spectacular movement.
It is clear that this outbreak is incommensurate with the withdrawal of -0.6% of the greenback … and could be vaguely linked to the rise in oil (but there is no relevant concordance between the two).
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