Three scenarios for the second ballot
Merz could be chosen with a rather narrow majority. Union and SPD have 328 seats in the Bundestag together. If Merz gets 328 votes in the second ballot, it should be assumed that the coalition factions have chosen him closed. If he gets less than 328, but at least the necessary 316 votes, Merz should get away with a deep blue eye.
Theoretically, however, it is also conceivable that MPs from other factions could choose Merz – and the future chancellor could even achieve more than 328 votes. So far there are no signs of this. For example, the Greens have already announced that they do not want to vote for Merz. But since the vote is secret, this cannot be checked. It is possible that some MPs consider stable conditions to be more important than their own party book. It would also be hypothetically possible that the AfD Merz gives voices – in order to plunge it into a new political dilemma.