While Russia will take the rotating presidency of the UN Security Council in October, its position on the Moroccan Sahara file will be put to the test. With complex relationships with both Morocco and Algeria, Moscow seeks to maintain a delicate balance.
The Russian Federation will assume the presidency of the Security Council next October. This presidency comes in a crucial moment for the Moroccan Sahara file, especially after the BRIEFING of personal envoy of the UN Secretary General for the Moroccan Sahara, Staffan de Mistura.
This last briefing was the result of a diplomatic process including regional tours of the UN envoy and informal meetings between the parties in April. It made it possible to reaffirm the relevance of the Moroccan autonomy proposal, perceived as a serious and realistic solution, supported by influential powers such as the United States, France and Spain. This path was accompanied by constant support for the autonomy plan, considered as the only viable basis for a settlement of this artificial dispute.
The Russian presidency represents an important milestone given the status of Russia as a permanent member, maintaining complex relationships with the different parties. Its attitude traditionally reserved on the votes, without explicit support for an option, suggests a measured management of the file. Moscow continues to support UN’s efforts without compromising its geopolitical interests in North Africa.
A new text from the Council is expected for October. It could be distinguished by a clearer formulation, relying on the latest briefings and informal consultations, in favor of a new phase definitively devoting the pre -eminence of the autonomy plan as the only realistic and sustainable solution.
Interests dictate the positions
For the academic researcher specializing in development and territory issues, Said Bouchakouk, current international balances favor strategic interests to the detriment of frozen ideological positions. This redefines the relationships between powers, especially in complex regional files, such as that of the Moroccan Sahara.
He stresses that Russia, as a global power, seeks to combine the maintenance of its traditional alliances with the expansion of its partnerships via economic, security and military cooperation, while preserving its vital interests.
-According to him, the geopolitical weight of Moscow, associated with its economic capacity, gives it an essential influence within the Security Council. This is reflected in his posture on the Sahara, where signals of change have appeared in recent years.
The historic visit of King Mohammed VI in Moscow and the signing of strategic agreements have established a climate of trust. This dynamic manifests itself through Russian neutrality in the UN resolutions on the Sahara, the strengthening of economic relations with Rabat, the appreciation of the balanced position of Morocco on the war in Ukraine, and the rejection of Algerian attempts to impose the Polisario in international forums, as at the last Russia – Afrique summit.
Regarding the coincidence between the Russian presidency and the presence of Algeria as a non -permanent member, Bouchakouk believes that Russia will maintain its abstention policy, conducive to relaunching the political process via the round tables recommended by the UN.
Finally, he insists on the importance of strengthening bilateral economic relations, considering that cooperation with Moscow can serve as a lever in supporting Moroccan position, especially at a time when the autonomy plan is gaining ground on the international scene.
The researcher in contemporary history Dedi Bibout recalls that Moscow has, since the end of the Cold War, gradually abandoned the ideological postures inherited from the Soviet era.
Since 1998, Russia has adopted a more pragmatic foreign policy, based on long -term interests. Even when she was very close to Algiers, she never sacrificed her links with Rabat. For Bibout, the turning point was confirmed in 2007 with the presentation of the Moroccan autonomy plan, positively welcomed on the international scene.
The researcher notes that Russian votes in favor of resolutions 1282 (1999) and 1301 (2000), recognizing the failure of the settlement plan and the dead end of the referendum, marked the start of a change of approach.
Since then, Russia has voted in favor of realistic solutions and has supported UN envoys while refusing the expansion of the Minurso mandate. She has never recognized the Polisario as a state, despite the regular visits of its representatives in Moscow.
Dedi Bibout concludes that Algeria will not be able to switch the Russian position during the Presidency of October, as long as Moscow favors regional stability and values realistic solutions, like the Moroccan autonomy plan which arouses increasing international support.
