Conclave: What is the power of a pope really?

According to the latest Vatican figures, more than 1.4 billion people worldwide are Catholic. This represents around 17 % of the world’s population.

It is therefore not surprising that pope Francis, who died on April 21 and whose funeral took place on Saturday April 26, attracted immense crowds during his trip to Asia in 2024, almost half of the population of Timor-Oriental having attended a mass in the country.

The previous year, more than a million people had braved the burning sun to attend a mass at Kinshasa airport, in the Democratic Republic of Congo during his visit to two African countries.

The ability to bring together as many people – and such devotion – is only one of the signs of the lasting influence of the Pope and the Catholic Church in the world.

The pope directs not only the Catholic faithful, but also the state of the city of the Vatican and his director organ, the Holy See. The Holy See is considered a sovereign entity under international law.

In other words, he officially participates in international affairs and maintains complete diplomatic relations with 184 countries and the European Union. The position of the Pope as Head of state and government, as well as spiritual leader of more than a billion faithful, makes him one of the most influential religious leaders in the world.

The Holy See has permanent observer status with the United Nations, which guarantees it a seat to one of the most influential decision-making tables on the planet.

Although he does not have the right to vote, he can participate in meetings and influence discussions.

In 2015, for example, before the signing of the Paris climate agreement, Pope Francis criticized what he called “arrogant indifference” of those who place the financial interests above efforts to save the planet. The form and the moment of this intervention were considered particularly useful for the countries of the South.

As early as 2024, the Holy See blocked the discussion on women’s rights at the UN top on the climate, after an impasse on gender and sexuality issues. The agenda agreement provided for financial support for women on the front line in the face of climate change.

The Vatican, as well as Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iran and Egypt, were worried that the text could include transgender women and demanded that the mentions of lesbian women be deleted. Despite severe criticism, the episode has highlighted the power of the Church to influence agreements with a direct impact on the lives of millions of people.

The normalization agreement for relations between the United States and Cuba in 2014 is another example of successful papal diplomacy. The presidents of the time, Barack Obama and Raúl Castro, publicly thanked Pope Francis for negotiating the process. François wrote letters to both and organized a secret meeting in the Vatican to facilitate rapprochement – although the United States has returned to part of the agreement under the administration of Donald Trump.

But it is the contribution of the Church to democracy in recent decades which represents its greatest success, according to Professor Daved Hollenbach of Berkley Center for Religion, Peace and World Affairs in the United States. Vatican Council II, in the 1960s, during which the Church carried out a critical revision of its teachings and its orientations, marked a commitment to the defense of human rights and religious freedom, which Mr. Hollenbach describes as “significant advance”.

The professor quotes the work of political scientist Samuel Huntington, according to which “during the pontificate of John Paul II, until the beginning of the Pontificate of François, three quarters of the countries which went from authoritarianism to democracy had a strong Catholic influence”.

“It all started with the transition in Spain and Portugal, which moved away from the regimes of Franco and Salazar, then spread to Latin America. The phenomenon then reached countries like the Philippines and South Korea, where the Catholic presence is also important”, explains Mr. Hollenbach, by paraphrasing Mr. Huntington.

According to him, the action of Pope John Paul II made it possible to open the way to democracy in his native Poland and “finally contributed to the collapse of the Soviet Union and to the dissemination of democracy in various parts of his former empire”.

However, the Vatican does not always manage to influence the world leaders.

When the American vice -president JD Vance – himself Catholic – used theological arguments to justify the migration policy of the government, the Pope wrote a letter unremated to remind that Jesus was also a refugee.

The American “TSAR of borders” Tom Homan, also Catholic, replied: “The Pope should repair the Catholic Church”.

In 2020, the Brazilian president of the time, Jair Bolsonaro, also attacked the Sovereign Pontiff after he defended the protection of the Amazon. “The pope may be Argentinian, but God is Brazilian,” said Bolsonaro.

The social influence of the Church has weakened in Europe, much stressing that its conservative positions on the rights of LGBT+, contraception and abortion are out of step with the 21st century. The refusal of François to authorize women to occupy certain ruling functions, such as those of priest or deacon, is another sign.

In Latin America, although the Catholic Church is always an important force, its influence was once greater. The Church played a key role in the formulation of restrictive laws on abortion in the region, but in the past 20 years, countries like Uruguay, Mexico, Argentina and Colombia have expanded access to this procedure, thus going against Catholic doctrine.

The growth of evangelical Christianity also threatens the number of faithful and the political power of the Church.

In Brazil, a country which has the greatest number of Catholics in the world, some analysts predict that in only five years, Catholicism will cease to be the majority religion. In addition, the incessant revelations on the sexual abuses committed by ecclesiastics – and the role of the Church in the concealment of these abuses – have eroded its reputation worldwide.

Despite this, the head of the Catholic Church continues to have an influence that few other leaders in the world have. This is partly explained by the fact that the Pope is both head of the greatest branch of Christianity and Head of State.

Whether it is to kiss the feet of warlords in South Sudan or comfort migrants in refugee camps in Greece, the actions of the pontiff – and the role of the Catholic Church – continue to shape world debates.