Will the next pope be French? It is a possibility, and even a seriously advanced hypothesis when approaching a new conclave. The death of Pope Francis, who died on Monday, April 21, caused the countdown to launch before the appointment of his successor. Which will be, as tradition dictates, appointed by the majority of cardinals gathered in conclave at the Sistine Chapel in the Vatican.
The names of several potential successors of Pope Francis are cited in the corridors of the Vatican and in the press, about fifteen surnames returns with more insistence and among them is that of a French: Cardinal Jean-Marc Aveline. The 66-year-old religious will himself participate in the conclave, alongside the 132 other cardinals authorized to vote because they are under the age of 80, and he could weigh heavily on the vote, either by winning it or by influencing it.
Jean-Marc Aveline is one of the favorites to become the next Pope, the Bookmakers Polymarket site, which gives a very good vision of the projections of people ready to play their money, place it in the top 10. Of course, given the large number of “cardinals papabili”, the percentage of “chances of winning” remains relatively low. It is actually a rating and not a probability.
A cardinal near Pope Francis and his ideas
Jean-Marc Aveline is one of the five French cardinals to be able to participate in the conclave. It was created Cardinal by Pope Francis on August 27, 2022. The religious is also a relative of the deceased sovereign pontiff and he shares with him several political ideas on tolerance about migrants and the vision of a less European-centered church. He is also a defender of interreligious speech and says he is in favor of dialogue with Islam. It is these positions similar to those of the Pope and favorable to “the opening of the Church” that make religious one of the favorites to become the future Pope.
But this rather progressive line on certain subjects, has already earned criticism from Pope Francis and could dissuade certain cardinals from voting for him during the conclave. The religious have the choice to continue on the path drawn by Pope Francis on an opening line or to return to a more traditionalist Church with a more conservative Pope. If the first option makes Jean-Marc Aveline’s appointment possible, the second closes the door to this possibility.
In addition to the ideology and the ideas he defends, the hypothesis Jean-Marc Aveline could suffer from some gaps in the French archbishop: man does not speak Italian, the official language of the Vatican. At 66, the cardinal could also appear too young in the eyes of the conclave to become a pope.
Jean-Marc Aveline, archbishop appreciated by Marseille
If it is Cardinal, Jean-Marc Aveline is above all the Archbishop of Marseille. Born in Oran, in Algeria, in 1958 of a family of black feet, the religious grew up in the working-class districts of the Marseille city of which he has become an emblematic figure. He was ordered a priest at the Archdiocese of Marseille in 1984 and had his entire religious career there until becoming a cardinal in 2022. More recently, he was elected president of the Conference of Bishops of France on April 2, 2025 for a position scheduled for July 1.
The Archbishop of Marseille seems appreciated by the inhabitants of the Marseille city who would be delighted to see her settle on the Holy See. “He is a very pleasant person that we come across regularly. He is a simple man, a man of heart. I think he could well take on the role of Pope who is not a thin task,” said a faithful to our colleagues from RTL. When another adds: “It is true that a French pope, in addition to Marseille, it would still be a big plus. But whatever the pope, you have to look at what he works, why he works and what he does”.
The craftsman of the arrival of Pope Francis in Marseille
Having become close to Pope Francis over the years, Jean-Marc Aveline is one of the people behind the Sovereign Pontiff’s trip to Marseille in September 2023. It was he who welcomed the Pope for his giant mass given at the Vélodrome stadium, in front of 57,000 people. Cardinal Aveline then praised an “unforgettable” visit to the Pope, which he made “Marseille”. He had also taken over the famous slogan of OM supporters, welcoming that the Marseillais are “forever the first” French to welcome a mass of Pope Francis. An allusion that had amused the sovereign pontiff, himself a big fan of football.
After the announcement of the death of Pope Francis, the Archbishop of Marseille presided over a mass “of homage and action of graces” at the Cathedral of the Major. “Thank you Pape Francis, for having aroused in our diocese and throughout the Church, in the Mediterranean and all over the world a new thrill of faith, hope, and charity,” he wrote in a press release.
10:42 – Jean -Marc Aveline confirms his mastery of Italian
Considered a “papabili” since the death of Pope Francois, the Cardinal Marseillais Jean-Marc Aveline was still reassured on one point: his master’s degree in Italian, the essential working language in the Vatican. So far, some forecastlers saw in his linguistic hesitations a possible brake on a possible ascent.
But last Sunday, in his Roman parish of Santa Maria Ai Monti, a stone’s throw from the Basilica Sainte-Marie-Majeure where Pope Francis now rests, he celebrated mass entirely in Italian. A life -size test, in the presence of faithful, Vaticanists and specialized journalists. True to his pastoral and educational style, Cardinal Aveline concluded in Italian: “Pray for us. If God wants, next Sunday…”. Will his level be enough to convince the 132 cardinals voters? Answer in a few days.
05/05/25 – 14:48 – “He starts to measure the gravity of the moment” according to a loved one
The Archbishop of Marseille, Jean-Marc Aveline, celebrated mass on Sunday in a family atmosphere at the Sainte-Marie-aux-Monts church. But far from the altar, “he begins to measure the gravity of the moment” confides a relative of the Cardinal to the Parisian. “He must ask himself: what if it was me?” he adds. In “spiritual retreat”, Aveline refuses any interview with journalists. But his relatives perceive a “weight in his head”, of which he “does not speak openly”, but who “transpires” for those who recently approached the president of the bishops of France, while the conclave will open this Wednesday afternoon.
05/02/25 – 11:57 am – The Italian press accuses Macron of wanting to weigh on the conclave in favor of Jean -Marc Aveline
Does Emmanuel Macron try to influence the next conclave? This is what several titles of the Italian conservative press suggest in recent days, spotted by Le Parisien. “Macron even wants to choose the pope,” accused the newspaper on Wednesday, while the conservative daily Libero affirmed that he “embeds even in the conclave”. He tempo, for his part, quipped: “Macron’s greatness does not know any limits”.
In question, two meals organized by the head of state in Rome, a few days after the death of Pope Francis. On April 25, he would have dinner with Andrea Riccardi, founder of the Sant’Egidio community, influential in the Vatican international relations according to the world. The next day, he would have brought together four French cardinals at the French Embassy: Jean-Marc Aveline, Archbishop of Marseille (considered papabile), Christophe Pierre, Philippe Barbarin and François Bustillo.
“If he managed to raise his favorite cardinal to the pontifical throne, the French head of state would instantly regain international weight” writes the daily Libero. He also quipped on his sidelining during an exchange between Trump and Zelensky in the Saint-Pierre Basilica, evoking an attempt to return “through the Sistine Chapel window”. The drop in popularity of the French president would encourage him to play a role in the conclave according to Il Tempo. Emmanuel Macron would have questioned the French cardinals about how to build a consensus around Jean-Marc Aveline, whose candidacy would know, according to the newspaper, “strong growth” within the Vatican.
04/30/25 – 16:48 – “If Jean -Marc Aveline came to become pope”
As the Conclave approaches, Jean-François Colosimo, specialist in the history of religions and director of deer editions, analyzed for the Express the challenges of the succession of Pope Francis. “If Jean-Marc Aveline were to become a pope, his exercise would not necessarily be more marked by proximity to France and even Europe” according to him. He specifies that “like François, he is a character in the south. It is not a Parisian”. Despite a lesser influence in the Vatican, “France has its chances of weighing in this conclave” according to the specialist.
04/29/25 – 13:55 – Before the conclave, Jean -Marc Aveline is discreet
One week before the start of the conclave, scheduled for May 7, the 135 cardinals voters meet in camera to exchange and know each other. Cardinal Jean-Marc Aveline, he prefers discretion. “He addresses this phase as a spiritual retreat. He shows a lot of listening,” said Father Xavier Manzano to Provence. He has accompanied the cardinal since his arrival at the Vatican last Wednesday.
04/28/25 – 15:15 – Asked about a possible pontificate election, Jean -Marc Aveline Temorise
During Pope Francisille’s visit to Marseille in 2023, Cardinal Jean-Marc Aveline was questioned about a possible accession to the papal function. A hypothesis that he has dismissed with modesty: “For the moment I have so many things to think. Afterwards, people think about it for us but really it does not live in me. I am happy in the service that I do here, I am happy in the mission that is mine” he explained at the microphone of BFMTV. Referring to his exchanges with Pope Francis, he said he perceived both “the constraints” and “the beauty” of the pontifical ministry. Before concluding: “I don’t have too much time to think about it and I do not want either. I would like to do my job as best as possible”,
