Since the beginning of 2023, the cocoa has been torched. A few days before Easter, egg prices exploded: between 5 to 10 % increase in bakeries compared to the previous year and up to 15 % on the shelf of large areas, according to UFC Que Choisir.
If chocolate manufacturers have bought their raw material several months ago at a high price, the courses have benefited from a relative lull in recent weeks: they now reach just over $ 8,000 per ton in new York. It is much less than the 10,000 dollars per tonne exceeded from the start of 2024. The price for delivery in September 2024 in London, had recorded an increase of almost 170 % over a year. Relaxation permitted by a drop in demand, especially at the end of 2024, after this prices explosion.
Climatic hazards
But the relative decrease in cocoa lessons does not predict that the bean will find its levels before 2023. The courses depending on the production of Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana. And the two countries, which provide nearly 70 % of beans worldwide, have been undergoing the effects of climate change for a few years. The outbreak of 2024 is notably due to the bad weather which had disrupted the crops in these two countries of West Africa the previous year, causing diseases to cultures.
“In 2023, West Africa underwent disastrous climatic episodes with extremely important rains, bad flowering, poor pollination and an epidemic due to a fungus,” notes Christian Cilas, correspondent in the cocoa sector at the Center for International Cooperation in Agronomic Research for Development (CIRAD).
Added to this is the aging of plantations when the producers do not renew their cocoa trees which become too old, or even the degradation of the soil, also completes the NGO Max Havelaar France.
New episode of drought
And precisely, while the production prospects were relatively good for 2025, the producers of Côte d’Ivoire are now concerned about drought. Precipitation has been rare since the beginning of April.
« There is a new climatic episode, with drought, disturbed flowers and reduced and delayed production “Confirm Christian Cilas. For the latter, production ” will surely be less important Even if it is still difficult to estimate how much. In some regions of the country, farmers believe that half harbor will not be as long and important as 2024. The Ivorian regulatory body, the COnSeil Cacao Café, a table even on a production of less than 1.7 million tonnes this year. Result : ” The lessons will continue to increase I love the expert.
Other signs of tension: at the start of the year, cocoa stocks were low. THE Financial Times In February revealed that in European warehouses, stocks were made up of 21,000 tonnes of beans, compared to 100,000 a year earlier. Enough to push lessons upwards. And if demand has decreased in recent weeks, this does not reflect the longer term trend. “” Demand is still increasing and when production has been decreasing as in recent years, we touch on stocks, this is where courses go up for fear of a shortageand,” says Christian Cilas.
Everything has not yet been lost when the most important production period takes place at the end of the year. That of 2024 was also better than the previous year. “” Everything will depend on how the climate of this second part of the year will take place “, Specifies Christian Cilas. “” What is certain is that before we were on relatively regular climatic cycles and now the climate is completely disturbed, producers have trouble adapting However, alerts the expert. Cocoa lessons have not finished being volatile …
