Global growth should remain stable this year and next, but at a level that remains historically low, estimated Thursday the World Bank (WB), which is particularly concerned about the pace observed in developing countries.
According to its forecast report on the global economy, growth is expected to reach 2.7% over the next two years, completely in line with the past year, a level which remains lower than it was before the Covid pandemic. 19.
Moreover, growth forecasts for developing countries are expected to be the weakest recorded since 2000, at a level “lower than what would be necessary to reduce poverty and achieve the main global development goals”, worries the institution.
“The majority of the elements which had helped their development have gradually dissipated and they must now face many headwinds”, underlined the chief economist of the WB, Indermit Gill, who calls on these countries to “consider a new approach by accelerating private investment and promoting more efficient use of talent and capital.”
A sign of this slowdown, the GDP per capita of developing countries has grown on average by 0.5 percentage points less per year since 2014 than what was observed in developed countries, which reinforces the gap between rich and poor, the Bank worries.
One of the difficulties comes from the increase in restrictions on international trade, which have been five times more numerous during the past year than the average of what could be achieved in this area over the 2010 decade.
Regionally, growth is expected to slow in East Asia and the Pacific as well as in Europe and Central Asia, with the same cause in both cases: weak domestic demand in both China and European countries.
-Conversely, Latin America, the Middle East and North Africa, as well as sub-Saharan Africa, will benefit from stronger demand to experience more robust growth.
As the report on the World Economic Forecast (WEO) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the next update of which will be published on Friday, the World Bank highlights the growing gap between the United States, where growth remains solid, and the zone euro, which continues to slow down.
As for China, although its growth forecast improves for 2025, it still remains on a slowing trend, gradually going from 5.1% growth in 2023 to 4% in 2026.
Conversely, India maintains a high level of growth (6.7% forecast for 2025 and 2026) but which could still prove insufficient given the country’s development needs.
With AFP
