New signs of weakening of the regime

The uprisings of 2019 and 2022 have deeply shaken the Iranian regime. The latter was only able to control the demonstrations by resorting to brutal repression, direct shooting at demonstrators and extreme violence. These events further widened the gap between leaders and society, costing the regime its legitimacy. Since then, the regime has lived in constant fear of another uprising capable of overthrowing it.

To divert attention, Ali Khamenei sought to create a regional crisis, particularly with the conflict in the Gaza Strip. However, this policy had negative consequences for its regional allies and further weakened the regime.

Iran’s weakening is evident in the diminishing influence of its proxy forces. In Lebanon, Hezbollah, Iran’s armed and political arm, has seen its power diminish, as evidenced by the election of a president after years of political impasse.

Lebanon, once a symbol of coexistence, is now marked by economic collapse caused by the policies of Hezbollah and Iran. In Gaza, the ceasefire reflects Iran’s loss of influence over its allies. If this trend continues, it could pave the way for the unification of Ramallah and Gaza, and even coexistence between Palestine and Israel.

For years, Iran, through its support for terrorism, blocked the implementation of the Oslo Accords.

The hardest blow for the regime was the fall of Bashar al-Assad, pillar of Iranian influence in Syria. Its fall marked the end of Iran’s strategic investment, destroying a major lever of international pressure.

Signs of the regime’s collapse are also visible inside. The protests reached the prisons, where inmates in Evin chanted “Death to the dictator.” For a year, prisoners staged weekly hunger strikes against the death penalty, showing their determination despite extreme conditions. On January 18, two influential “judges,” Ali Razini and Mohammad Moghiseh, were killed by an employee of the Ministry of Justice. Razini, known for passing death sentences on thousands of dissidents who ran a corruption network. This assassination reflects either popular anger or, as the regime claims, an action by opponents. In both cases, it symbolizes a change in balance between the regime and the people.

The regime faces a moral collapse. Hossein Salami, head of the Revolutionary Guards, said that “to defeat a regime, you must first cause its psychological collapse.” This stage already seems accomplished, suggesting the end of a regime incapable of maintaining itself in the face of a people seeking change.

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