Trump’s omnipotence has limits

Analyse

On the eve of taking office, the re-elected president of the United States seems at the peak of his power.

Since November 5, the entire political world seems to have only one activity: waiting for Donald Trump. The outcome of the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, but also the future of the economy and the world order. All seem to depend on the unpredictable whims of whoever will return to the White House on January 20.

Small disruptive maneuvers, such as the publication of the report of special prosecutor Jack Smith or the announcement of a judicial sentence emptied of its content will change nothing. The Republican brushes them aside with a simple wave of the hand, because almost everything currently seems to be working to his advantage.

unstoppable Trump

Everything, or almost. Only the nomination of Matt Gaetz as Minister of Justice was a flop. But it will likely remain the exception that proves the rule. The other members of the “clown circus” – Peter Hegseth at Defense, Tulsi Gabbard at the intelligence services, Kash Patel at the head of the FBI and RFK Jr at Health – have a good chance of being dubbed by the Senate.

Opposite, the Democrats are struggling to form an effective opposition. The shock of defeat in the last elections remains violent.

Added to this is the fact that the technology oligarchs (Elon Musk, but not only) are now eating out of Trump’s hand. Whether it was Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg or Tim Cook, each not only donated $1 million to the inauguration ceremony, but all also kissed the president’s ring at Mar-a-Lago . “EVERYONE WANTS TO BE MY FRIEND,” rejoiced the billionaire on his Truth Social platform.

As for possible critical voices, the media contain their own with regard to the next head of state. The ABC television network, which is owned by the Disney group, spent $15 million to defend itself against a defamation suit by Trump – a claim that rested on more than shaky legal grounds. Meanwhile, Twitter, sorry, Fox Newsthe main propaganda organ of the MAGA pack. And on Facebook, Mark Zuckerberg has just called to order those responsible for verifying information.

On the international scene, more and more supporters of Donald Trump are taking control of power. The breakthrough of Herbert Kickl in Austria, designated future chancellor, is only the latest example among many others.

If nothing seems to be able to stop the Trump convoy, a handful of accidents are looming on the horizon. The leader has already gone back on some of his electoral promises. Thus, he now gives himself six months to end the war in Ukraine, although he once boasted of achieving this objective on his first day in office, in “24 hours”. The same goes for the fight against inflation, an issue on which he apparently wants to give himself more time.

Control over the party

The members of the Grand Old Party certainly follow their leader like well-behaved lapdogs.

Despite everything, there are sometimes hiccups. The re-elected billionaire thus failed to convince the House of Representatives to remove the debt ceiling. He did not win the elections hands down either, the majority in Congress remains extremely short.

The conflict between Elon Musk and Steve Bannon could also act as a time bomb. And for good reason: the boss of Tesla wants to hire en masse computer engineers who would arrive from Asia thanks to a special visa.

Steve Bannon is firmly opposed to it. The conflict between the two men has intensified recently. In an interview given to Corriere della SeraDonald Trump’s former adviser ordered the billionaire to return to his native South Africa, calling him a “really evil guy.” Elon Musk responded on X with flowery tweets such as:

Donald Trump was in opposition for four years. As President Lyndon Johnson vulgarly put it, he could “piss from the outside into the tent of government.” In a week, the roles will reverse. He will have to assume his responsibilities and he will be judged by his astonishing promises.

Economic problems ahead?

Joe Biden certainly leaves his predecessor with an intact economy. But there are signs that this could change. American financial markets are overheated, and therefore prone to crashes. Blatant example: Tesla and the Chinese electric car manufacturer BYD achieve approximately the same turnover. The price/earnings ratio of BYD stock is 15, that of Tesla is 120.

As tech stocks reach dangerously high levels, questionable derivatives are once again spreading like they did before the 2008 financial crisis. The cryptocurrency boom could also spark the creation of a new bubble.

Rising yields and falling prices on the government bond market also indicate that the importance of a healthy national budget is being relegated to the background. The US public debt ratio has already crossed the 100% mark and Trump is not known for his austerity.

At the international level, several states are beginning to work together to circumvent possible punitive customs duties and other harassments imposed by the United States.

In foreign policy too, Trump will face headwinds. His remark to bring Greenland, Panama and Canada to their knees – if necessary by resorting to the army – was not at all well received abroad. “Even if he does not carry out these threats, he has already done a lot of damage to the American reputation in the world and among its allies,” notes Gideon Rachman in the Financial Times. “And this, even though he has not yet taken office.”

(French adaptation: Valentine Zenker)

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