Concern in Germany over the return of Donald Trump

Donald Trump’s return to power is increasingly worrying Germany, which fears trade threats and a reduction in military support in NATO, while privately questioning the future of American democracy.

In a confidential internal memo with a particularly alarmist tone, which leaked to the press on Sunday, the German ambassador to the United States, Andreas Michaelis, expressed his concern.

In this diplomatic cable sent Tuesday to his Minister of Foreign Affairs Annalena Baerbock and published by the daily “Bild” he speaks of the “revenge plans” of the elected president. He denounces his “maximum disruption strategy” aimed at “redefining the constitutional order” in the United States.

The leak of this diplomatic cable comes at a bad time for Berlin as it is this 65-year-old ambassador who will represent the German government on Monday during the inauguration of Donald Trump.

The German Foreign Ministry tried to put this matter into perspective, recalling that the United States “is one of our most important allies”.

The concern is palpable in particular in the camp of Social Democratic Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

It will be necessary “to work well with each American government but the first signs we have are not encouraging”, agreed the co-president of the party, Lars Klingbeil, in an interview also on Saturday with Bild.

“We are reaching out to Donald Trump” but “it must be clear, if he refuses it we will have to be strong and defend our interests,” he added

On the military level, the Republican billionaire pleaded for NATO countries to devote 5% of their GDP to their defense, repeatedly repeating that its members do not pay enough for the protection provided in his eyes by the States. -United.

A demand which pushed the German Minister of Defense, Boris Pistorius, to propose an increase of 30 billion euros in the medium term of the German defense budget, to go beyond 3% of GDP, against 2% today. ‘today.

It is the risks of a trade war that particularly concerns Germany, which has emerged from two years of recession and is heavily dependent on exports to the United States, particularly in the automobile industry.

The inauguration of Donald Trump marks the beginning of an era where American politics will become “more unpredictable” and where international agreements “will be more threatened”, worries Deborah Düring, the head of foreign affairs in the Green party, member of the government coalition.

Customs duties in particular played “a central role in Donald Trump’s communication” and it is therefore “very likely that a trade war will break out,” warned Isabel Schnabel, who is part of the board of directors of the European Central Bank, on Sunday. , in an interview with the financial advice website Finanztip.

In addition to Mexico and China, on which Donald Trump could impose new customs duties on Monday, the euro zone is also in the sights, in particular Germany which has the highest trade surplus with the United States.

For the euro zone, additional duties could lead to higher prices, especially if Europe retaliates, leading to “an increase in import prices,” explains Ms. Schnabel.

In France, the head of diplomacy Jean-Noël Barrot also warned on Saturday that the EU should react “with an iron will” in the event of an escalation in trade tensions.

However, retaliatory European duties would be “a mistake”, judged Dirk Jandura, the president of the German wholesale federation (BGA), estimating that a trade war would be “losing for everyone”, in an interview on Sunday with the “Rheinische Post” newspaper.

U.S. tariffs, while damaging to the German economy, remain an unlikely threat and are a negotiating tactic, he agreed.