UN agencies fear Donald Trump’s inauguration

(Geneva) A few days before the inauguration of Donald Trump, UN agencies fear that the American president-elect will shake them up even more.

During his first term (2017-2021), the United States notably reduced its financial contributions to UN operations and agencies, left the Human Rights Council, the Paris climate agreement and the UNESCO, and launched the withdrawal from the World Health Organization (WHO).

The most severe measures were taken towards the end. This time, things will go faster, experts say.

“It is likely that he will abandon these UN agreements and mechanisms without much ceremony,” Richard Gowan of the International Crisis Group told AFP.

Many observers expect a drastic reduction in funding from the United States, the United Nations’ largest contributor.

At the UN, officials are quick to emphasize the importance of the American partnership. “Cooperation between the United States and the United Nations is an essential pillar of international relations and the UN system,” said Stéphane Dujarric, spokesperson for UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres.

But this love is not always reciprocated.

Republican elected official Elise Stefanik, appointed by Trump to be American ambassador to the UN, sees the UN as “a corrupt, defunct and paralyzed institution”.

And some fear that Republicans will pass a bill to remove the United States from the UN.

“Unlikely”

Jussi Hanhimaki, professor of international history at the Graduate Institute (HEID) in Geneva, downplays this threat, believing that Washington is not keen to cede its influence to China.

“Total withdrawal is unlikely,” he told AFP.

Especially since during Trump’s first term, Beijing and its allies became more present within organizations neglected by the Americans in Geneva, such as the Human Rights Council.

The outgoing American ambassador to the UN in Geneva, Sheba Crocker, points out: “some of our strategic rivals are heavily invested in promoting their interests in Geneva.” “That’s why I think the United States will remain engaged and it’s in our interest to do so,” she told AFP.

US President Joe Biden took the lead last year by not presenting the US candidacy for a second consecutive term at the Human Rights Council, thus avoiding another resounding exit from Trump.

The World Trade Organization (WTO), on the other hand, could quickly face difficult times, while the president-elect has brandished the threat of customs duties even before taking office, according to Mr. Hanhimaki.

“Very worried”

Some observers are also concerned about funding for programs related to reproductive rights.

During Trump’s first term, Washington defunded the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), accusing the organization of coercive practices including forced abortion in China.

“We are very worried,” Rachel Moynihan, deputy director of the UNFPA office in Washington, told AFP.

But the agency, which estimates having prevented 3,800 women from dying during pregnancy in 2023 thanks to American contributions, is used to seeing its funding reduced under Republican administrations.

“We are a resilient agency,” noted M^me Moynihan.

Other UN agencies may be less well prepared. UN Women and the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights are also expected to be in Trump’s crosshairs.

Painful

And it is rumored in Geneva that a withdrawal from the WHO could be announced on the first day. That would be a mistake, according to Suerie Moon, co-director of the Global Health Center at the University Institute of Geneva.

“Having an impartial and functioning WHO is entirely in the national interest of the United States,” she stressed to AFP.

The WHO has sought to expand its donor base, but the United States remains in the lead.

Asked last month about the threat, its director general, Tedros Adhanon Ghebreyesus, seemed confident: “I believe they will do the right thing.”

The WHO could survive an American departure “but it would be painful”, believes M^me Moon, who however questions the attitude of other countries.

The last time Trump was in office, European countries mobilized to help keep targeted U.N. agencies afloat. This time, they “made it clear that they had no money saved […] to come to the rescue of the United Nations,” argues Mr. Gowan.

Some UN agencies are already considering cost reductions, according to various observers, and continue to seek other contributors.

Indeed, “relying on a politically unstable country as a source of long-term financing is quite imprudent,” comments Mr. Hanhimaki.