the number of deaths is underestimated by 40%, according to a study published in “The Lancet”

The probable number of deaths estimated by the study is 64,260 deaths in the Palestinian territory, between October 2023 and June 2024.

What are the human tolls in the Gaza Strip, more than a year after the start of the war between Israel and Hamas? A study published in the prestigious British medical journal The LancetFriday January 10, estimates that the number of deaths in the Palestinian enclave, during the first nine months of the conflict, is approximately 40% higher than that recorded by the Ministry of Health of the Palestinian territory, led by Hamas .

The number of people killed in Gaza has been the subject of fierce debate since Israel launched its campaign against the Islamist movement, in response to the terrorist attack on its territory on October 7, 2023. From the start of the war As of June 30 last year, the Gaza Strip’s Ministry of Health reported a death toll of 37,877. The study of Lancet estimates that between 55,298 and 78,525 deaths were caused by traumatic injuries in the Palestinian territory during this period. Zeina Jamaluddine, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, is the lead author of the study. The other authors are also researchers at this establishment.

The probable number of deaths estimated by their investigation is 64,260 deaths until this date, a figure 41% higher than that of the Ministry of Health. This figure represents 2.9% of Gaza’s pre-war population, “i.e. approximately one in 35 inhabitants”according to the study. This toll does not include indirect deaths, such as those due to lack of care or food, nor the thousands of missing people believed to be buried under the rubble.

Israel has questioned the credibility of Gaza’s health ministry figures, but they have been deemed reliable by the United Nations. The study’s researchers used a statistical method called “capture-recapture”, which is based on three lists: that provided by the Ministry of Health and which includes bodies identified in hospitals or morgues; a list from an online survey launched by the Health Ministry, in which Palestinians reported the deaths of their loved ones; a list established from obituaries published on social networks, when the identity of the deceased could be verified. The researchers then examined the death lists for duplicates.

The authors of the study urge caution, explaining that the lists published by hospitals do not always indicate the cause of death. It is possible that people with non-traumatic health problems, such as a heart attack, were included, which could lead to an overestimation. Kevin McConway, professor of applied statistics at the British Open University, told AFP that there was “inevitably a lot of uncertainty” when estimates are made from incomplete data. “Overall, I find these estimates reasonably convincing”he judges however.