Global military spending increases with increasing conflicts – rts.ch

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk recently declared at a gala in Warsaw that security would be Poland’s priority for the next six months, a strong message as he took up the presidency of the European Union (EU).

Poland, a country bordering Ukraine, is today the European leader in military investments. Between 2022 and 2023, Poland recorded the largest increase in military spending in Europe, with a jump of 75%. It also encourages its EU partners to follow its example.

The strategic choice of the Polish government is clear: to reach 300,000 soldiers, against 200,000 currently. To do this, massive arms purchases are made, in order to equip the Polish army with cutting-edge equipment.

Léo Péria-Peigné, researcher at the French Institute of International Relations, underlines that these defense choices benefit from “a broad political consensus” within the country, driven by a “feeling of extreme threat” in the face of the war in Ukraine .

Shift of the military balance point in Europe

This dynamic of military reinforcement could even reconfigure the point of military balance in Europe, particularly between Poland, Germany and France. “For example, by 2035, Poland could have ten times more tanks than Germany or France,” indicates Léo Péria-Peigné, Thursday on the RTS show Tout un monde.

If Poland is rather an exception by swelling its ranks, it is not the only one to invest in the army in Central Europe. Its neighbors are making other strategic choices, focusing, for example, on their military modernization.

“Romania, for example, is buying battle tanks, rocket launchers and fighter planes, with the aim of maintaining a competitive army in the face of a future modern conflict,” adds the researcher at the French Institute of International Relations .

Likewise, France, after decades of reduction in size and military budget, is undertaking a series of investments to repair the reductions made after the Cold War and strengthen its capabilities, according to Léo Péria-Peigné.

Global military spending on the rise

Globally, military spending continues to grow. In 2023, they reached historic heights, with a total amount of 2,443 billion dollars. This figure has more than doubled since 2001, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

>> Read more: Record increase in global military spending

Several factors explain this explosion in military spending. The return of war in Europe with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, growing tensions in the Middle East and the hardening of rivalries in Asia are fueling this dynamic.

Jean-Marc Rickli, director of global risks at the Geneva Security Policy Center, explains that this increase in military spending took place in two phases: the first after the September 11 attacks, with the fight against terrorism , then more recently with the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine. The colossal number of drones and shells consumed each month in Ukraine illustrates the reality of a conflict which requires colossal military resources, he emphasizes.

Ukraine is thus the eighth highest spending country in the world. The leading trio is formed by the United States, China and Russia.

No decrease in sight

SIPRI has not yet published its detailed figures for 2024, but according to Jean-Marc Rickli, the increase in military spending is expected to continue.

Donald Trump’s recent speech, calling on NATO countries to devote 5% of their GDP to defense this year, compared to 2% currently, confirms this upward trend. Even if a ceasefire were to be signed in Ukraine, the overall dynamic remains unchanged.

Europeans have realized that the period of “peace dividend” which followed the Cold War is now over. Military investments continue, even in the absence of open conflict, with the aim of improving security and responding to new geopolitical threats, analyzes the director of global risks at the Geneva Security Policy Center.

Radio subject: Julie Rausis

Adaptation web: exercise