A simple sentence can sometimes shake up an entire industry. This was demonstrated by Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia, by expressing his skepticism about the near future of quantum computing.
In Silicon Valley, some words carry more weight than others. When Jensen Huang, the boss of Nvidia, talks about quantum computing, the market holds its breath… and sometimes collapses.
On January 9, 2025, a simple statement from the CEO was enough to evaporate more than $8 billion in market capitalization in the quantum computing sector.
« If you said 15 years to have really useful quantum computers, I would be optimistic. If you said 30 years, I would be pessimistic. But if you choose 20 years, I think many of us would agree. » This sentence, seemingly innocuous, had the effect of a bomb in the industry. For what ? Because it calls into question the timeline on which many quantum companies have built their stratospheric valuations.
The numbers speak for themselves: Rigetti Computing plunged 46%, Quantum Computing 43%, IonQ 42%, and D-Wave more than 30%. To understand the scale of the phenomenon, you must know that some of these companies had experienced dizzying growth, exceeding 1,800% in a few months according to Axios.
The quantum paradox
Quantum computing is not just an empty promise. Google recently demonstrated the power of this technology with a chip capable of performing calculations in five minutes that would take a traditional supercomputer 10 septillion years. However, the gulf between these technical advances and commercial profitability remains yawning.
To go further
Google’s quantum chip would “open a window onto parallel universes”: true or false?
Let’s take Rigetti: valued at 4.4 billion dollars, the company should only invoice around 11 million in 2024. Same observation for IonQ, whose valuation of 10 billion contrasts with expected revenues of barely 41.6 million . These figures perfectly illustrate the gap between market expectations and the economic reality of the sector.
Quantum computing does not yet solve any concrete problems. Google also recognizes this and specifies that their next challenge will be to find a first practical application. Quantum computing remains a promising field, but one that is advancing step by step.
The technical improvements are real: better error management, more qubits, greater stability. These advances are necessary to one day have useful quantum computers. But we’re not there yet.
Let’s keep in mind, however, that the Nvidia CEO’s comments could be motivated by strategic interests: quantum computing could represent an existential threat to Nvidia’s GPU business in a horizon much closer than the 20 years mentioned.
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