a departure in the form of a pretense

Although it is predictable, the blow is severe for the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). The 66^e ordinary summit of the regional organization, which was held on December 15 in Abuja (Nigeria), recorded its divorce from Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, which founded the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) in September 2023 then announced their departure in January.

« The three countries will officially cease to be members of ECOWAS from January 29, 2025 “, declared Omar Touray, president of the organization commission, while specifying that ECOWAS would set up a transition period from January 29 to July 29, 2025. During these six months, supposed to give them time to settle the terms of their departure, “ the doors of ECOWAS will remain open to them » in the event of an about-face, he added.

Establishing a transition period was one of the grievances of Senegalese President Bassirou Diomaye Faye, official mediator between ECOWAS and AES, but especially of Togolese Head of State Faure Gnassingbé, who secretly plays an intermediary role between the two camps since the start of the crisis. Both hope to have a final chance to change the minds of the putschists.

Two days before the Abuja summit, the foreign ministers of the AES countries met in Niamey and produced a joint declaration, carried by the head of Malian diplomacy Abdoulaye Diop, in which they described “ irreversible » their decision to leave ECOWAS.

“Little repercussions for the citizens of the Sahel”

However, in a region where economies and peoples are interdependent, the AES countries are careful not to burn all bridges. Their press release thus evokes the “ firm will » of the three heads of state « to strengthen, in a pan-African spirit, the mechanisms aimed at facilitating the free movement of people and goods in the West African region », a way of reaffirming that the AES countries are not leaving the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU), despite their recurring promises to leave the CFA franc in the medium term.

The two institutions have separate membership charters and, in most French-speaking countries, membership in UEMOA predates the structuring of ECOWAS. “ Concretely, the break between the AES and ECOWAS will have few repercussions for the citizens of the Sahel, including the diasporas. », predicts Bangali N’Goran, lecturer in the history of international relations at the Jean-Lorougnon Guédé University in Daloa.

« The primary vocation of ECOWAS was to lay the foundations of a common marketrecalls the teacher-researcher. As the major projects for the construction of this common market have stability as their basis, ECOWAS then adopted diplomatic and political standards, with requirements of governance and democracy for its members, while UEMOA remained an organization purely economic. We find ourselves today in a West African space where the two organizations overlap. The Sahel States seem to have the feeling that, when one does not feel well within ECOWAS, the most convenient thing is to withdraw towards UEMOA. »

A paradoxical position for the Sahelian juntas, who criticize ECOWAS for remaining under the yoke of the former French colonial power. “ It is necessary to distinguish between the declared reasons and the real reasons for their departureunderlines Mr. N’Goran. They are not leaving ECOWAS because it would be under the influence of France. Let us remember that Nigeria, the economic giant of the region, was not a French colony, and that Paris does not exercise any particular influence there. »

Peaceful military cooperation between states

What will happen on the evening of July 29, 2025 if the latest attempts at mediation have failed? Two scenarios are possible. ECOWAS, on the eve of its 50th^e anniversary, could decide to save its territorial integrity by backing down on its standards of governance, and in particular its repeated calls for the military to return power to civilians, in order to convince the AES to remain within it. Cooperation between its member states would then lose its political component and become only economic and security.

Otherwise, separation would become effective with the Sahel countries. Which would not necessarily be definitive: if the putschist governments switch to civilian rule, discussions for a potential return could be relaunched.

In the meantime, the transition should make it possible to resolve certain points, such as the case of ECOWAS officials and institutions based in these different countries, or that of cross-border exchanges between French-speaking and English-speaking countries – in particular Nigeria – which do not belong not in UEMOA and do not use the CFA franc. But also, and above all, to establish peaceful military cooperation between the different States, an essential condition for securing borders and limiting the expansion of Sahelian jihadist groups.

If this military cooperation has always been the poor relation of ECOWAS, the current crisis could precisely provide the organization with the opportunity to reorient its security policy. Discussions were notably launched to change the objective of its “ strength in waiting », the joint military force of the member states which can be mobilized by the president of the commission. Initially intended to restore constitutional order in member states, it could thus be sent to support the national armies of Sahel countries to fight terrorism, while jihadist groups continue to gain ground in the region.