Why does French demography remain an exception within the European Union?

Births and fertility, mortality, abortions, marriages, migratory flows… As every year, the National Institute of Demographic Studies (INED) draws up an overview of French demography based on the latest available data. In a report published Monday, December 16, the researchers this time opted for a comparison with other European countries.

On January 1, we had 68.4 million inhabitants, or 230,000 more than the previous year. “However, growth is slowing, driven by a historically low natural balance – less than 50,000 people – and a migration balance three times higher than the natural balance, now the main driver of demographic growth”notes François Clanché, director of INED.

To define net migration, the researchers based themselves on the residence permits granted: 283,000 in 2024 compared to 237,741 in 2017. They noted, in passing, an increase in residence permits granted for professional reasons (+ 4 points in one year), especially for women (+15 points). France, however, remains far behind Germany and Spain, which together account for 52% of flows.

It ranks 5th among the countries of the European Union, but 21st when we relate these flows to the size of the population. Contrary to popular belief, it is therefore among the countries which welcome the fewest exiles.

Aging is accelerating, with a 6.6% drop in births

Although our country remains one of the youngest in Europe, aging is accelerating, with a notable decrease in the number of births. Those under 20 (23% of the population) are now almost equal to those over 65 (22%). Last year, 678,000 children were born, a drop of 6.6% compared to 2022. The total fertility index reached its lowest level since the post-war period, at 1.67 children per woman. Don't panic.

Despite everything, France remains one of the most fertile countries in Europe and ranks 2nd behind Bulgaria and 1st for the 1985 generation, just ahead of Ireland. Didier Breton, coordinator of the report, specifies that this figure of 1.67 “reflects the behavior of a given year but is difficult to transpose to a generation”. The hypothesis of an increase, observed in the 1990s, however, remains quite unlikely in the next ten years because “When you look at the average age of first birth today, it is significantly higher than in the 1990s.”

To explain this drop in fertility, researchers observed the proportion of childless women in the censuses. Between 2011 and 2021, it increased, particularly among women aged up to 35 – 40 with qualifications. “In this decline, there is renunciation, prevention, but also postponement. We will have to wait to see what the relative weight of these three phenomena is. There’s definitely a bit of all three. The future will tell us, explains Didier Breton. Furthermore, he observes that between 2011 and 2021, the decline in fertility is linked to a decrease in the share of people living in a cohabiting couple. However, it represents one of the prerequisites for the arrival of a child.

Growth in the number of abortions

At the same time, the number of abortions is increasing for the second consecutive year, with 242,000 voluntary terminations of pregnancy (abortions) in 2023 compared to 232,000 in 2022. The ratio of 1 abortion for 3 births is thus exceeded. Rates which increase at all ages, particularly between 20 and 39 years old. Medical abortions represent nearly 8 out of 10 abortions.

“Even if we will have to wait a few more years to speak of a trend, these results are part of a context of changes in behavior in terms of fertility, advances Justine Chaput, doctoral student at INED. The uncertainties linked to the socio-economic and geopolitical situation can mean that in the event of a pregnancy, there is a greater proportion to terminate it. »

The researcher notes in passing the territorial disparities which persist in France in terms of access to abortion. Unlike abortions, IMGs (medical terminations of pregnancies) have decreased. The latter are practiced at older ages, linked to the increase in high-risk pregnancies. If we relate these figures to the number of women aged 15 to 49, France is, with Sweden, the country where the rate of recourse to abortion is the highest in Europe (more than 15 per 1000 women aged 15 to 49 years).

Marriage and civil partnerships, for their part, are occurring later and later but are recovering slightly, continuing to catch up with the covid years. PACS between people of the same gender have never been so numerous: 10,350 in 2022 compared to 6,900 marriages. The average age at first marriage, like that observed for all marriages, continues to increase (respectively 34 and 36.3 years for women, 36 and 38.7 years for men).

Infant mortality is increasing

Finally, INED researchers note that even if mortality is relatively low at older ages compared to European countries, infant mortality lags significantly and increasingly behind. France has the sad score of 23rd out of 27 at European level. “It is much higher in the overseas departments and territories, particularly in Mayotte, underlines research director Magali Barbieri. But even excluding them, infant mortality is rising slightly in France. The explanatory factors are quite nebulous. We do not have data. But we know the influence of mortality from the first day, even from the first hours. It is a problem that occurs either during pregnancy or during childbirth. »

Several combined factors explain this phenomenon. Among them, as has already been mentioned, the trend in fertility which is falling in France, more rapidly among the most educated women, where the proportion of infant mortality is lower. Thus, continues the researcher, “In all women who give birth to children, the proportion of those who have more risk factors increases. Demographic factors also play a role. Children of older women, twins have higher mortality risks than others. And these categories are gaining more and more weight in general fertility.”

Finally, compared to the rest of the European Union, life expectancy is “excellent for women, less good for men”, notes Magali Barbieri. Just behind Switzerland for women (85.7 years compared to 86 years) and barely above the Eastern countries for men (80 years). Among the reasons given, higher mortality among young men aged 20 to 30, mainly linked to road accidents and a slower decline in early deaths from cancer, particularly due to alcohol consumption (wine ) more important than in other Western EU countries.