Olaf Scholz loses a vote of confidence from MPs, signaling the end of his coalition before early legislative elections in Germany

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, unsurprisingly, lost the vote of confidence from deputies on Monday, December 16, which he had requested. This vote marks the end of the heterogeneous coalition in power since 2021, which imploded on November 6, after the dismissal of the liberal finance minister, due to insurmountable differences over economic and budgetary policy.

Olaf Scholz only received the support of 207 parliamentarians in the Bundestag, 394 voted against him and 116 abstained. He needed a majority of 367 votes to win.

Since then, Mr. Scholz has led a minority government between his social democratic party (SPD) and the Greens, whose legislative action has been paralyzed. The dissolution of the Assembly should then be decided by the President of the Republic, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, and early legislative elections are called for February 23. Since the post-war period, only four chancellors have asked the question of confidence in the Bundestag, often to provoke elections.

Despite his chronic unpopularity and the failure of his coalition, the imperturbable leader of the SPD wants to believe in his chances of a second term. At this stage, the polls give him little hope and Germany is heading towards a political alternation with the conservative CDU/CSU camp led by Friedrich Merz clearly winning, with 30 to 33% of voting intentions. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is credited with 17 to 19.5%, but the other parties exclude any cooperation with it.

The SPD would garner 15% to 17% of the vote, the Greens 11.5% to 14%. But the chancellor has already proven his ability to defy the odds by winning the elections in 2021, against all odds. And he wants to renew the performance by reassuring through his experience in a tormented global geopolitical context plunged into the unknown by the election of Donald Trump to the White House.

The Social Democrats do not miss an opportunity to highlight the inexperience of Friedrich Merz, once sidelined by former Chancellor Angela Merkel (2005-2021) and who has never held the position of minister or mayor.