Faced with the risk of nuclear war, States are taking renewed interest in anti-atomic shelters

Austere rows of metal berths, in a composed of glaucous green steel plates with visible rivets. Russia has started mass production of mobile fallout shelters, Reuters reported on Tuesday (November 19).

According to the research institute of the Ministry of Emergency Situations, this shelter called « GOLD-M »composed of a room and a technical block, can protect its 54 occupants from shock waves, radiation, fires and multiple other threats for a period of up to 48 hours. It can be easily transported on a truck and connected to water supplies, and can also be deployed in the vast permafrost of northern Russia, the institute said.

Long-range missiles

This decision comes against a backdrop of growing international tensions. On Sunday, November 17, President Joe Biden's administration authorized Ukraine to use long-range US missiles ATACMS to strike Russia — a significant reversal of Washington's policy in the conflict between Ukraine and Russia. In response, Vladimir Putin signed a decree on Tuesday, November 19, expanding the possibilities of using atomic weapons.

Ukraine's other allies have also supplied it with weapons, but with restrictions on how and when they can be used inside Russia, for fear that their use could lead to reprisals that would attract NATO countries in the war or provoke a nuclear conflict.

Read also: « Yes, nuclear war remains possible »

Despite this, announcements concerning the development or rehabilitation of anti-atomic shelters are increasing on the European continent. Ukraine began building schools with anti-nuclear shelters this year.

Sweden began on Monday, November 18, sending its residents some 5 million information booklets on what to do in the event of an attack. It has been working to update the equipment in its shelters since 2021 and last April released an envelope of 385 million crowns (33 million euros) to carry out this project.

Germany announced Monday, November 25, that it had started a census of public and private buildings where its population could take refuge in the event of an attack: parking lots, underground stations, etc. It would have 579, most dating from the Cold War, which could house 480,000 people (out of 84.48 million inhabitants in 2023). Its residents are encouraged to convert their basements into shelters and the development of an application geolocating these shelters is planned.

370,000 shelters in Switzerland, a thousand in France

But the state furthest ahead in this process remains Switzerland, which at the end of 2022 had nearly 370,000 anti-bombing shelters, including 9,000 public bunkers, most of them built during the Cold War and maintained in accordance with a regulatory obligation. of 2002. All of its 8.6 million inhabitants would have a place there.

That leaves France, which does not share this cement-making excitement. In 2023, the senator of Oise Olivier Paccaud questioned the Minister of the Armed Forces Sébastien Lecornu on « the low capacity of underground shelters intended to protect the population in the event of a nuclear armed conflict ». According to him, France barely counted « a thousand » shelter: 600 soldiers and 400 private civilians.

« Relative to the population, these figures give our country a remarkably low level of protection against nuclear risk since it is barely above 0. % »he scolded. Prime Minister Élisabeth Borne responded that « since 1964, nuclear deterrence has permanently protected France from any threat of state-origin aggression against its vital interests, whatever its form. ».

« If the enemy chooses to take the risk, you will die »

« Deterrence is the idea that any attack on France's vital interests could lead to a response that would cause the enemy unacceptable losses. »explains to Reporterre a senior official familiar with the matter. The pillars of this doctrine are the successive modernizations of the nuclear arsenal ; the permanent presence of a missile-launching submarine capable of hitting targets even very far away ; and a doctrine « ambiguous »unwritten, intimidating in that it leaves doubt about the level of aggression which would trigger the use of atomic weapons.

In this strategy, the construction of anti-atomic shelters would be at best useless, at worst counterproductive: « This could undermine the credibility of deterrence, by implying that we ourselves would not believe in our own doctrine. »explains the senior official. The protection conferred by this doctrine of nuclear deterrence nevertheless remains very questionable, insists Benoît Pelopidas, founder of the program. Nuclear Knowledges at Sciences Po Paris: « Deterrence is not protection. It is the bet that the nuclear threat will convince the enemy not to strike. If the enemy chooses to take the risk, you will die or suffer very serious consequences. »

Despite this doctrine, French companies specializing in the construction of anti-atomic shelters for individuals are showing growing interest in their products. The manager of Amesis Building International Protect Enzo Petrone remembers Emmanuel Macron's declaration on a possible sending of ground troops in February 2024. « For a month, we had two hundred phone calls a day »he tells the Figaro.

The French company Bünkl designs, manufactures and markets underground refuges equipped with filters CBRN (nuclear, radiological, biological and chemical) and autonomy « which far exceeds our psychological capacity to support confinement »explains his boss Karim Boukarabila. All for the price « of a large German sedan » — the price of the next technical solution proposed by the company « should be less than 70,000 euros ».

The company did not wish to communicate its sales figures, but notes that demand has increased since the start of the conflict in Ukraine. « We have all profiles: single women, elderly people, young couples… People are finding out »says Karim Boukarabila. In fact, according to a survey conducted by Benoît Pelopidas' team in partnership with theIFOP17,5 % of people surveyed in 2019 considered nuclear war to be among the three issues most likely to affect their lives in the next ten years ; in October 2024, they were 26.4 %.

« We would only have ten to thirty minutes to get people down to the shelters »

These anxieties are not new and swell and ebb with international news. In 1980, in a Cold War context, the sale of anti-atomic shelters was already « in full expansion »according to an Antenne 2 newspaper.

However, such shelters would only offer precarious and limited protection to the population. First difficulty, reaching the refuge in time. « Given the speed of a ballistic missile and the warning times, we would only have ten to thirty minutes to get people down to the shelters »indicates the senior official.

Even if they were reached in time, such shelters would not be a panacea. « If there is a major nuclear war, it is very likely that people will die of starvation or suffocation in the shelter, although this equipment may be useful in the event of a conventional attack or possibly a single, limited nuclear strike. It is false to say that there is a technology that makes atomic war no longer a problem because we can live underground »turns away Benoît Pelopidas.

Upon exit, the question of long-term survival in a devastated and irradiated territory would arise. A nuclear war could indeed lead to global famine and the death of more than 5 billion people, according to a study published in Nature Food in August 2022.