Nigeria, a pivotal country in Emmanuel Macron's African policy

Certain relationships require special attention. Thursday November 28 and Friday November 29, in Paris, the President of Nigeria, Bola Tinubu, will be received on a state visit – the highest level of protocol – by Emmanuel Macron. For the French president, Nigeria is above all a personal story, which began in 2002, when, as a student at the National School of Administration, he completed an internship at the French embassy in Abuja.

Twenty-two years later, ahead of the arrival of his Nigerian counterpart in Paris, Emmanuel Macron's entourage readily recalls that his last visit to Nigeria, in July 2018, remains one of his most memorable memories on the African continent. Shirt sleeves rolled up in an electric atmosphere, the French president spent an evening in the legendary New Afrika Shrine concert hall, created by the father of Afrobeat, Fela Kuti, in Lagos.

The sequence was imagined by his teams to embody the rupture that he intended to introduce in terms of African policy when he came to power in 2017. His ambition? Promote the development of economic, cultural and even sporting partnerships, outside the historic precinct of Paris in French-speaking Africa.

The “software change” promised seems, seven years later, to have little convinced Paris's African partners. On the economic front, while trade has increased in volume, France's market shares on the continent have fallen, from 5.5% in 2017 to nearly 3.2% in 2023, according to the French Ministry of Defense. economy, facing Chinese, Russian and Turkish competitors on the offensive. THE “dozens of Airbuses” that some diplomats imagined selling to Kenya or Nigeria were never ordered.

Rich in gas and oil

Driven out of the Sahel by juntas which have reoriented themselves towards Russia and in a delicate position in other French-speaking African countries, France is still looking for privileged partners in English-speaking and Portuguese-speaking Africa, in countries without any liabilities. French colonial and market providers for French companies. To mark this change of horizon, a symbol: in 2026, the next Africa-France summit will not be held in France nor in a French-speaking African country, but in Kenya.

In this logic of openness, Emmanuel Macron is betting a lot on Nigeria. With more than 220 million citizens, Africa's most populous country, rich in gas and oil, is the fourth largest economy on the continent. Enough to make it an emerging power, courted by many countries.

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