Those who believed the bluff will be confused: Donald Trump announced Monday that he would impose tariffs of 25% on Canadian and Mexican products. The Canadian political class was quickly outraged, but for the Americans it could be a negotiating lever to make gains in certain strategic sectors, according to an expert.
It was through a publication on his Truth Social network that the president-elect of the United States confirmed his intentions. “On January 20, as one of my many first executive orders, I will sign all necessary documents to impose 25% tariffs on ALL products entering the United States on Mexico and Canada.”
He justifies his decision by the “thousands of people who flock [aux États-Unis] by Mexico and Canada, bringing crime and drugs to levels never seen before.” “This tax will remain in effect until drugs, especially fentanyl, and all illegal immigrants stop this invasion of our country!” » added the president-elect, who maintains in his message that Canada and Mexico have “the power to easily resolve” these problems.
China is not left out. In another message published on Truth Social, Donald Trump announced a 10% increase in tariffs on “all the many products arriving from China to the United States.” He once again raised the issue of drug trafficking to justify this tariff attack, citing conversations with Chinese officials who promised to punish offenders “up to the death penalty.”
“No one will win a trade war,” Chinese diplomacy warned on Tuesday following the declarations of the American president-elect. “China believes that trade and economic cooperation between China and the United States is mutually beneficial in nature,” said a spokesperson, Liu Pengyu.
The imposition of tariffs, which he described as his “favorite expression” during the presidential campaign, promises to be a flagship measure of the next Trump administration. In particular, he promised duties of up to 60% for certain Chinese products and 200% on vehicle imports from Mexico. These tariffs can be introduced by decree, as Donald Trump was able to do several times during his first term.
Knee-jerk reaction from the political class
Canadian politicians were quick to react. NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh spoke directly to Prime Minister Trudeau on X moments after the announcement. “You can’t bury your head in the sand. Stand up and fight. Canadian jobs are at stake.”
In a joint statement, the Deputy Prime Minister of Canada, Chrystia Freeland, and the Minister of Public Safety, Dominic LeBlanc, recalled the close relationship between Canada and the United States. They said Canada pays a lot of attention to border security. “We will obviously continue to discuss these issues with the new government. »
Before recalling as a warning that Canada was “essential for the energy supply” of the United States.
On the Quebec side, the Prime Minister, François Legault, offered on X his “full collaboration” with Ottawa in the tariff standoff that is emerging. “This promise from President-elect Donald Trump poses a huge risk to the Quebec and Canadian economies. We must do everything we can to avoid tariffs of 25% on all products we export to the United States. Border integrity must be the priority of the federal government. »
His Ontario counterpart, Doug Ford, agrees: “Prime Minister Trudeau must organize an emergency meeting with the premiers [provinciaux] “. The federal government must “take the situation at the border seriously.”
David Eby, Premier of British Columbia, reacted in the evening by asserting that “Trump’s tariffs will hurt both Canadians and Americans.” He calls on Canadians for “unity” and demands that Ottawa respond with “force”.
At the time these lines were written, the leader of the opposition in Ottawa, Pierre Poilievre, had not yet reacted.
A negotiating lever
“The real question is: “Is this 25% a start to debate human rights again? [de douane] on wood or even on dairy products?” », says Ferry de Kerckhove, visiting professor at the Graduate School of Public and International Affairs at the University of Ottawa, in an interview with Duty.
“I think we are at the beginning of a negotiation phase,” he said, and a price increase of this magnitude could serve as a bargaining chip for changes to Canadian trade policies, particularly with regard to the perennial Canadian-American dispute over softwood lumber. “I think it’s a bit of a wake-up call. There will certainly be negotiations” which could lower the scale of the prices, according to him.
Moreover, tariff increases on Canadian and Mexican products “will probably be felt more quickly” among American consumers than tariffs on Chinese products, which could result in a rapid increase in the prices of consumer goods. and generate frustration among the American population.
“I think that the very nature of American economic integration being what it is, I believe that even Trump is capable of understanding” the importance of exchanges between the “three friends “. His current position would be a way of puffing out his chest and forcing concessions from his business partners, explains the researcher.
As to who, Pierre Poilievre and Justin Trudeau, would be in a better position to renegotiate the trade agreement between Canada and the United States, the answer is not clear, according to Mr. de Kerckhove. He believes that the Liberal Prime Minister did well during the renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement — which became the Canada–United States–Mexico Agreement — during the first mandate Trump.
With Agence France-Presse
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