In a weakened European Union, Poland tries to assert its leadership

Warsaw wanted to think big on Tuesday, November 19, by bringing together, in the former royal residence of Lazienki, the Polish, French, German and Italian foreign ministers, as well as the designated high representative of the European Union (EU) to foreign affairs and security policy, Kaja Kallas, joined by videoconference by the heads of British and Spanish diplomacy. On the thousandth day of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Europeans were keen to show their support for kyiv, calling to strengthen their common defense while preserving their relations with the United States.

“We are convinced that, in the current geopolitical situation (…)only strong transatlantic ties will allow us to effectively counter the growing threats from Russia and other states”underlined the Polish Minister of Foreign Affairs, Radoslaw Sikorski, believing that the time had come to “Europe to assume more responsibility for its own security”.

This observation was shared by all the participants. “Every euro that goes to Ukraine’s security is 1 euro that strengthens our capabilities”declared the head of German diplomacy, Annalena Baerbock, insisting on the need for European countries to devote at least 2% of their gross domestic product to defense.

The fact that this meeting took place in the Polish capital owes nothing to chance. Since Donald Tusk came to power in December 2023, his government has made a remarkable return to the conduct of European affairs, breaking with eight years of Euroscepticism and diplomatic chaos.

Unlike France and Germany, undermined by political instability, Warsaw has a strong government, resulting from the legislative elections of October 2023, marked by record participation. Poland is also preparing to take over the rotating presidency of the Council of the EU on 1^is January 2025. While the return of Donald Trump to the White House on January 20, 2025, opens the door wide to the unknown regarding the outcome of the conflict in Ukraine, Warsaw sees itself more than ever as a link between Brussels and Washington .

Be ready to face the American withdrawal

The center-right government, fearing unfavorable peace conditions for Ukraine, continues to increase diplomatic initiatives. Former President of the European Council (2014-2019), close to Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the Commission – and a member like her of the European People’s Party – Donald Tusk continues bilateral meetings in preparation for the European Council in December. He will also be the guest, on November 27 and 28, of the Council of the Baltic and Nordic Countries in Stockholm, where a strategic partnership agreement between Poland and Sweden will be signed.

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